The House, seat by seat
Republicans are expected to win 103 of 163 seats and Democrats 60. Republicans need 109 for two-thirds:
Skip the seat ladder
- Safe, likely, lean Republican
- Toss-up
- Lean, likely, safe Democratic
- Each bar is a seat; every House seat
- Majority 82: Republicans hold it in >99% of simulations.
- Two-thirds 109: the supermajority line, enough to override a veto with no Democratic vote.
- Between the two lines: a Republican majority, short of a supermajority.
The simulated outcomes as a table
| Republican seats | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% |
| 87 | 0.1% |
| 88 | 0.1% |
| 89 | 0.1% |
| 90 | 0.2% |
| 91 | 0.3% |
| 92 | 0.5% |
| 93 | 0.8% |
| 94 | 1.2% |
| 95 | 1.8% |
| 96 | 2.7% |
| 97 | 3.7% |
| 98 | 4.8% |
| 99 | 5.7% |
| 100 | 6.9% |
| 101 | 7.7% |
| 102 | 8.1% |
| 103 | 8.3% |
| 104 | 8.5% |
| 105 | 8.3% |
| 106 | 7.5% |
| 107 | 6.6% |
| 108 | 5.4% |
| 109 | 3.8% |
| 110 | 2.5% |
| 111 | 1.6% |
| 112 | 1.0% |
| 113 | 0.6% |
| 114 | 0.4% |
| 115 | 0.2% |
| 116 | 0.1% |
| 117 | 0.1% |
| 118 | 0.1% |
Simulated outcomes: 100,000 runs of the forecast of Nov 3, 2026. Seat shades are each seat's chance in that forecast.
Why this forecast
Republicans need 109 of 163 seats to keep two-thirds. Adding up every seat’s chance, the model expects them to hold about 103.
| Seats by how sure the model is | Seats |
|---|---|
| Democratic, no Republican on the ballot | 29 |
| Very likely Democratic, contested | 21 |
| Closer than 95 to 5 | 22 |
| Very likely Republican, contested | 86 |
| Republican, no Democrat on the ballot | 5 |
| Seats in the House | 163 |
- Of the 163 seats on the ballot, 50 are very likely Democratic (29 with no Republican on the ballot), 91 very likely Republican (5 with no Democrat), and 22 are closer than 95 to 5.
- Seats move together: each simulated election has one statewide swing, one for each region and one for each type of district, so a good night for one party tends to help it in many seats at once (D-06, D-21).
- Republicans keep two-thirds only when the whole state swings their way at once. In the 10,686 of 100,000 simulated elections where Republicans keep two-thirds, the statewide mood came in 2.6 pts less Democratic than the central estimate; in the rest, 0.3 pts more Democratic.
- Polls of the St. Louis congressional race (MO-2) ran 2.1 pts above its fundamentals. The model treats that as weak evidence about Missouri’s mood: +0.32 pts in every legislative seat, a little more in St. Louis-area seats.
- Polls of two Senate districts (SD 8 and SD 30) ran 2.9 and 0.8 pts more Democratic than the model expected there. Read together with the MO-2 polls, they add +0.13 pts to every legislative seat and more to the two polled seats (D-25).
- Both chambers come from the same simulated elections, so they move together. If the two were unrelated, Republicans would keep both in about 4.9% of elections. Because a good Republican night helps them in both, it is 9.5%. When Republicans keep the Senate, they also keep the House 21% of the time.
What the model does not know. Two Senate-district polls (SD 8, SD 30) are used as noisy observations (D-25); there are no House-district polls. Candidates’ fundraising, local news and endorsements do not change legislative expected vote shares. Recorded defensive committee spending can widen uncertainty in selected seats without moving the expected share (D-27). Outside ratings are shown for comparison only (D-09); third-party candidates are ignored (D-08). The model also cannot know about a late event that moves many districts at once, beyond the spread it already allows for.
Closest races
The contested House seats where the race is closest to even. Each seat Democrats win helps hold Republicans under 109 of 163, the two-thirds supermajority.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Chance | Projected margin, vs last time | State Navigate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House District 96House 96 | Matt Vitale (D) vs Brad Christ (R)Vitale D v Christ RHeld by Republican | Republican | Toss-upState Navigate: Likely D, 82% DProjected Even; D +11 vs R+10 in 2024 | EvenD +11 vs R+10 in 2024 | Likely D, 82% D |
| House District 101House 101 | Paul Lentz (D) vs Ben Keathley (R)Lentz D v Keathley RHeld by Republican | Republican | Toss-upState Navigate: Likely D, 82% DProjected R+1; D +8 vs R+9 in 2024 | R+1D +8 vs R+9 in 2024 | Likely D, 82% D |
| House District 16House 16 | Dan Kinate (D) vs Chris Brown (R)Kinate D v Brown RHeld by Republican | Republican | Toss-upState Navigate: Likely D, 78% DProjected R+1; D +11 vs R+11 in 2024 | R+1D +11 vs R+11 in 2024 | Likely D, 78% D |
| House District 94House 94 | Cathy A Summers (D) vs Maryellen Murphy (R)Summers D v Murphy RHeld by Republican, open | Republican, open | Toss-upState Navigate: Toss-up, 50% DProjected R+1; D +12 vs R+13 in 2024 | R+1D +12 vs R+13 in 2024 | Toss-up, 50% D |
| House District 105House 105 | Cat Clayton (D) vs Colin Wellenkamp (R)Clayton D v Wellenkamp RHeld by Republican | Republican | Toss-upState Navigate: Very likely D, 88% DProjected D+1; D +7 vs R+6 in 2024 | D+1D +7 vs R+6 in 2024 | Very likely D, 88% D |
Where the seats are
Select a district on either map or in the list. The same district stays selected when you switch views.
St. Louis area, enlarged
Kansas City area, enlarged
- Safe R
- Likely R
- Lean R
- Toss-up
- Lean D
- Likely D
- Safe D
- Seats with one major-party candidate take the safe shade
District lines: Census Bureau TIGER/Line 2024, the 2022 plans, simplified. Shading: each seat's chance, safe Republican to safe Democratic, in the forecast of Nov 3, 12:24 pm CT.
- Safe R
- Likely R
- Lean R
- Toss-up
- Lean D
- Likely D
- Safe D
- Seats with one major-party candidate take the safe shade
Each hexagon is one House district, placed to approximate its location; area is not to scale. District lines: Census Bureau TIGER/Line 2024, the 2022 plans, simplified. Shading: each seat's chance, safe Republican to safe Democratic, in the forecast of Nov 3, 12:24 pm CT.
Every seat on the ballot
Click a column to sort. The 2024 lean is a weighted 2024 two-party margin: half governor, a quarter each president and US Senate; the expected share is the Democrat’s forecast two-party share; the chance is how often each party wins the seat across the simulations.
| 1 | No Democrat vs Jeff Farnan (R) | Republican | Jeff Farnan (R) | R+53 | — | — | Uncontested R | Uncontested R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Casey Scott (D) vs Phil Fox (R), Shelby Dreier (Libertarian) | Republican | Open (retired) | R+63 | R+57 21.5% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 3 | Corey Luebbering (D) vs P. Jeremy Mosley (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+50 | R+44 28.2% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 4 | Tristan Sutton (D) vs Keith Gudehus (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+65 | R+57 21.5% D | D +9 vs R+66 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 5 | John Paul Tomko (D) vs Roth Mcelvain (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+56 | R+50 25.0% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 6 | Robert Johnson (D) vs Kelly Gatts (R), John Davison (Libertarian) | Republican | Open (running for other office) | R+55 | R+48 26.2% D | D +9 vs R+57 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 7 | Adrian Cooper (D) vs Jeremy Clevenger (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+58 | R+52 24.1% D | D +11 vs R+63 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 8 | Amy Minich (D) vs Josh Hurlbert (R) | Republican | Josh Hurlbert (R) | R+36 | R+30 34.9% D | D +7 vs R+37 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 9 | Gena Puckett (D) vs Dean VanSchoiack (R) | Republican | Dean Van Schoiack (R) | R+53 | R+49 25.7% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 10 | LaTonya T. Williams (D) vs Paul Gatewood (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+14 | R+8 46.2% D | D +16 vs R+24 in 2024 | Solid R, 96% R | |
| 11 | Luke Rae (D) vs Taylor Crouse (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+32 | R+24 37.8% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 12 | Tracey Steele (D) vs Jerry Hickey (R) | Republican | Open (running for other office) | D+4 | D+8 53.8% D | D +8 vs R+1 in 2024 | Solid D, 98% D | |
| 13 | Jacoby Wynkoop (D) vs John Elliott (R) | Republican | Open (running for other office) | R+34 | R+26 36.8% D | D +7 vs R+33 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 14 | Ashley Aune (D) vs Frank Pendleton (R) | Democratic | Ashley Aune (D) | D+7 | D+19 59.3% D | D +10 vs D+9 in 2024 | Solid D, 99% D | |
| 15 | Kenneth Jamison (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Ken Jamison (D) | D+8 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 16 | Dan Kinate (D) vs Chris Brown (R) | Republican | Chris Brown (R) | R+1 | R+1 49.6% D | D +11 vs R+11 in 2024 | Likely D, 78% D | |
| 17 | Susan Hoisington (D) vs Bill Allen (R) | Republican | Bill Allen (R) | Even | D+5 52.4% D | D +9 vs R+4 in 2024 | Very likely D, 91% D | |
| 18 | Eric Woods (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Eric Woods (D) | D+23 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 19 | Wick Thomas (D) vs Karen Irene Spalding (R) | Democratic | Wick Thomas (D) | D+49 | D+62 81.2% D | D +14 vs D+49 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 20 | Jeff Spicer (D) vs Mike Steinmeyer (R) | Republican | Mike Steinmeyer (R) | R+13 | R+10 44.8% D | D +8 vs R+19 in 2024 | Tilt R, 80% R | |
| 21 | Will Jobe (D) vs Michael Young (R) | Democratic | Will Jobe (D) | R+1 | D+15 57.6% D | D +12 vs D+3 in 2024 | Solid D, 96% D | |
| 22 | Yolanda Young (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Yolanda Young (D) | D+51 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 23 | Tony L. Van Trece (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Open (retired) | D+71 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 24 | Kevin Garner (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Open (retired) | D+70 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 25 | Pattie Mansur (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Pattie Mansur (D) | D+54 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 26 | Tiffany Price (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Tiffany Price (D) | D+66 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 27 | Melissa A Douglas (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Melissa Douglas (D) | D+74 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 28 | Donna Barnes (D) vs Steven W Hinton (R) | Democratic | Donna Barnes (D) | D+34 | D+49 74.6% D | D +13 vs D+36 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 29 | Tedi H. Rowland (D) vs Robert Bruette (R) | Democratic | Open (resigned) | D+5 | D+16 57.8% D | D +3 vs D+12 in 2024 | Solid D, 98% D | |
| 30 | Kevin Grover (D) vs Jeff Martin (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | Even | D+6 52.9% D | D +15 vs R+9 in 2024 | Likely D, 90% D | |
| 31 | Justin Geiser (D) vs Ron Fowler (R) | Republican | Ron Fowler (R) | R+7 | R+4 47.9% D | D +7 vs R+11 in 2024 | Tilt D, 54% D | |
| 32 | Jennifer Cassidy (D) vs Michael Todd (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+35 | R+25 37.4% D | D +8 vs R+33 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 33 | Troy Latterell (D) vs Carolyn Caton (R) | Republican | Carolyn Caton (R) | R+21 | R+16 41.9% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, 98% R | |
| 34 | Kemp Strickler (D) vs Sean Smith (R) | Democratic | Kemp Strickler (D) | D+2 | D+11 55.3% D | D +7 vs D+4 in 2024 | Solid D, 98% D | |
| 35 | Michael Scott (D) vs Jacquie Aziere Stenger (R) | Democratic | Open (term-limited) | D+13 | D+20 60.0% D | D +5 vs D+15 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 36 | Anthony T. Ealy Jr (D) vs Dave Thomas (R) | Democratic | Anthony Ealy (D) | D+22 | D+34 66.9% D | D +11 vs D+23 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 37 | Karissa Marie Varga (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Open (retired) | D+40 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 38 | Martin (Marty) Jacobs (D) vs Mary Hill (R) | Democratic | Martin Jacobs (D) | R+5 | D+14 56.9% D | D +11 vs D+3 in 2024 | Very likely D, 93% D | |
| 39 | Tanya Lakins (D) vs Mark Meirath (R) | Republican | Mark Meirath (R) | R+28 | R+24 38.2% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 40 | Thomas D McBeth (D) vs Chad Perkins (R), Sheri Jay (Libertarian) | Republican | Chad Perkins (R) | R+58 | R+53 23.6% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 41 | Matthew Beger (D) vs Doyle Justus (R), Dalton P. Johnson (Libertarian) | Republican | Doyle Justus (R) | R+52 | R+49 25.5% D | D +9 vs R+58 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 42 | Amy Pritchard (D) vs Jeff Myers (R) | Republican | Jeff Myers (R) | R+50 | R+46 26.9% D | D +9 vs R+55 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 43 | Rich Gold (D) vs Brendan Webber (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+53 | R+46 26.8% D | D +11 vs R+57 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 44 | Bekki Brewer (D) vs John Martin (R) | Republican | John Martin (R) | R+24 | R+23 38.6% D | D +7 vs R+29 in 2024 | Solid R, 99% R | |
| 45 | Kathy Steinhoff (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Kathy Steinhoff (D) | D+45 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 46 | David Tyson Smith (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | David Tyson Smith (D) | D+21 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 47 | Adrian Plank (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Adrian Plank (D) | D+7 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 48 | Hope Tinker (D) vs Tim Taylor (R) | Republican | Tim Taylor (R) | R+49 | R+46 27.0% D | D +9 vs R+55 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 49 | Jessica O’Neal-Slisz (D) vs Jim Schulte (R) | Republican | Jim Schulte (R) | R+42 | R+38 31.2% D | D +8 vs R+45 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 50 | Gregg Bush (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Gregg Bush (D) | D+10 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 51 | Ron Fauss (D) vs Stephanie Gooden (R) | Republican | Open (retired) | R+45 | R+39 30.6% D | D +9 vs R+48 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 52 | Rene Vance (D) vs Israel Baeza (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+46 | R+39 30.6% D | D +10 vs R+49 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 53 | Beth Grubb (D) vs Terry Thompson (R) | Republican | Terry Thompson (R) | R+44 | R+38 31.1% D | D +8 vs R+46 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 54 | Taigan Rayne Plummer (D) vs Brandon Phelps (R) | Republican | Brandon Phelps (R) | R+35 | R+34 33.1% D | D +7 vs R+41 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 55 | Jon Pennell (D) vs William (Bill) Irwin (R) | Republican | Bill Irwin (R) | R+39 | R+35 32.6% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 56 | Staci Czar (D) vs Steve Baker (R) | Republican | Open (lost primary) | R+12 | R+2 48.8% D | D +6 vs R+8 in 2024 | Lean R, 81% R | |
| 57 | Michael D. Walbom (D) vs Matt Sergent (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+56 | R+51 24.7% D | D +12 vs R+62 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 58 | Roger Korenberg (D) vs Willard Haley (R) | Republican | Willard Haley (R) | R+61 | R+56 21.8% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 59 | Becky Kroll (D) vs Carrie Tergin (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+53 | R+49 25.7% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 60 | Suzanne Luther (D) vs Shane Kampeter (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+20 | R+15 42.6% D | D +10 vs R+25 in 2024 | Very likely R, 92% R | |
| 61 | Stacy Bax (D) vs Bruce Sassmann (R) | Republican | Bruce Sassmann (R) | R+66 | R+62 19.0% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 62 | Liz Davenport (D) vs Sherri Gallick (R) | Republican | Sherri Gallick (R) | R+46 | R+41 29.3% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 63 | Donald R Looney Jr (D) vs Tony Lovasco (R) | Republican | Open (running for other office) | R+28 | R+21 39.3% D | D +9 vs R+31 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 64 | Amber Teson (D) vs Deanna Self (R), Arnie Dienoff (Independent) | Republican | Deanna Self (R) | R+33 | R+29 35.5% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 65 | Dale Conoyer (D) vs Wendy L. Hausman (R) | Republican | Wendy L. Hausman (R) | R+19 | R+15 42.3% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, 97% R | |
| 66 | Marlene Terry (D) vs Laura Mitchell-Riley (R) | Democratic | Marlene Terry (D) | D+74 | D+89 94.7% D | unopposed (D) in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 67 | Tonya Rush (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Tonya Rush (D) | D+70 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 68 | Kem Smith (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Kem Smith (D) | D+49 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 69 | Chris Chapman (D) vs Scott Miller (R) | Republican | Scott Miller (R) | R+14 | R+11 44.6% D | D +5 vs R+15 in 2024 | Lean R, 77% R | |
| 70 | Stephanie Boykin (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Stephanie Boykin (D) | D+29 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 71 | Nicole Greer (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Open (term-limited) | D+28 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 72 | Patrick James Wroblewski (D) vs Jeffrey Jacks (R) | Democratic | Open (term-limited) | D+27 | D+36 68.2% D | unopposed (D) in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 73 | Kennedy Moore (D) vs No Republican, Joy Denise Dabney (Libertarian) | Democratic | Open (term-limited) | D+62 | — | — | Uncontested D | Solid D, >99% D |
| 74 | Marla Smith (D) vs Jack Howard (R) | Democratic | Marla Smith (D) | D+66 | D+81 90.3% D | D +13 vs D+67 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 75 | Chanel Mosley (D) vs Brandon Wilke (R) | Democratic | Chanel Mosley (D) | D+51 | D+65 82.5% D | unopposed (D) in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 76 | Marlon Anderson (D) vs No Republican, Amber Cole (Independent) | Democratic | Marlon Anderson (D) | D+78 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 77 | Kimberly-Ann Collins (D) vs No Republican, Michael Corey (Libertarian) | Democratic | Kimberly-Ann Collins (D) | D+78 | — | — | Uncontested D | Solid D, >99% D |
| 78 | Marty Joe Murray (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Marty Joe Murray (D) | D+75 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 79 | Rachel D’Souza (D) vs Mike Hebron (R) | Democratic | Open (term-limited) | D+79 | D+88 94.0% D | unopposed (D) in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 80 | Elizabeth (Lilly) Fuchs (D) vs Jennie Drag (R) | Democratic | Elizabeth Fuchs (D) | D+67 | D+81 90.3% D | D +12 vs D+68 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 81 | James (Jimmy) Lappe (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Open (term-limited) | D+46 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 82 | Nick Kimble (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Nick Kimble (D) | D+40 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 83 | Ray Reed (D) vs No Republican, Andrew Bolin (Libertarian) | Democratic | Ray Reed (D) | D+36 | — | — | Uncontested D | Solid D, >99% D |
| 84 | Del Taylor (D) vs Robert Vroman (R) | Democratic | Del Taylor (D) | D+72 | D+85 92.7% D | D +10 vs D+76 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 85 | Yolonda Fountain Henderson (D) vs Jerron J Sutton (R) | Democratic | Yolonda Fountain Henderson (D) | D+84 | D+99 99.6% D | unopposed (D) in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 86 | Jeff Hales (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Jeff Hales (D) | D+64 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 87 | Connie Steinmetz (D) vs Dan Hyatt (R) | Democratic | Connie Steinmetz (D) | D+23 | D+35 67.6% D | D +11 vs D+24 in 2024 | Solid D, >99% D | |
| 88 | Jennifer Trickey (D) vs Holly Jones (R) | Republican | Holly Jones (R) | R+17 | R+13 43.6% D | D +7 vs R+20 in 2024 | Likely R, 89% R | |
| 89 | Bryan Troop (D) vs George Hruza (R) | Republican | George Hruza (R) | R+7 | R+9 45.6% D | D +6 vs R+15 in 2024 | Toss-up, 55% R | |
| 90 | Mark Boyko (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Mark Boyko (D) | D+22 | — | — | Uncontested D | Solid D, >99% D |
| 91 | Jo Doll (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Jo Doll (D) | D+39 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 92 | Michael Burton (D) vs Kenneth Abram (R) | Democratic | Michael Burton (D) | D+5 | D+18 59.1% D | D +10 vs D+9 in 2024 | Solid D, 99% D | |
| 93 | Bridget Walsh Moore (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Bridget Walsh Moore (D) | D+7 | — | — | Uncontested D | Solid D, >99% D |
| 94 | Cathy A Summers (D) vs Maryellen Murphy (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+8 | R+1 49.6% D | D +12 vs R+13 in 2024 | Toss-up, 50% D | |
| 95 | Meredith Sumenek (D) vs Bob Mahacek (R) | Republican | Open (resigned) | R+17 | R+11 44.5% D | D +12 vs R+23 in 2024 | Likely R, 89% R | |
| 96 | Matt Vitale (D) vs Brad Christ (R), Shane Ferguson (Libertarian) | Republican | Brad Christ (R) | D+2 | Even 50.1% D | D +11 vs R+10 in 2024 | Likely D, 82% D | |
| 97 | Dan Schaefer (D) vs David Robertson (R) | Republican | Open (lost primary) | R+25 | R+18 41.1% D | D +11 vs R+29 in 2024 | Solid R, 99% R | |
| 98 | Jaclyn Zimmermann (D) vs Timothy Bosch (R) | Democratic | Jaclyn Zimmermann (D) | D+4 | D+16 57.8% D | D +11 vs D+5 in 2024 | Solid D, 98% D | |
| 99 | Tori Schafer (D) vs No Republican | Democratic | Open (term-limited) | D+34 | — | — | Uncontested D | Uncontested D |
| 100 | Mary Ann Perkins (D) vs Philip Oehlerking (R), Ken Newhouse (Libertarian) | Republican | Philip Oehlerking (R) | Even | D+6 52.8% D | D +6 vs R+1 in 2024 | Solid D, 96% D | |
| 101 | Paul Lentz (D) vs Ben Keathley (R), Jeff Coleman (Libertarian) | Republican | Ben Keathley (R) | Even | R+1 49.6% D | D +8 vs R+9 in 2024 | Likely D, 82% D | |
| 102 | David Rogers (D) vs Richard W West (R) | Republican | Richard West (R) | R+27 | R+23 38.6% D | D +6 vs R+29 in 2024 | Solid R, 99% R | |
| 103 | Don Crozier (D) vs Dave Hinman (R) | Republican | Dave Hinman (R) | R+18 | R+8 45.8% D | D +5 vs R+14 in 2024 | Solid R, 91% R | |
| 104 | Tara Murray (D) vs Terri Violet (R) | Republican | Terri Violet (R) | R+6 | R+2 48.8% D | D +7 vs R+10 in 2024 | Tilt D, 69% D | |
| 105 | Cat Clayton (D) vs Colin Wellenkamp (R) | Republican | Colin Wellenkamp (R) | Even | D+1 50.4% D | D +7 vs R+6 in 2024 | Very likely D, 88% D | |
| 106 | Jewel Kelly (D) vs Travis Wilson (R) | Republican | Travis Wilson (R) | R+4 | R+2 49.1% D | D +9 vs R+11 in 2024 | Lean D, 68% D | |
| 107 | Gary Wester (D) vs Mark Matthiesen (R) | Republican | Mark Matthiesen (R) | R+21 | R+14 42.8% D | D +7 vs R+21 in 2024 | Likely R, 92% R | |
| 108 | Stephen Scott (D) vs Mike Costlow (R) | Republican | Mike Costlow (R) | R+23 | R+22 39.2% D | D +6 vs R+27 in 2024 | Solid R, 98% R | |
| 109 | Trent Leslie (D) vs John Simmons (R) | Republican | John Simmons (R) | R+44 | R+40 30.2% D | D +5 vs R+44 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 110 | Claire Heinrich (D) vs Niles Stephens (R) | Republican | Open (resigned) | R+21 | R+18 40.9% D | D +7 vs R+25 in 2024 | Solid R, 98% R | |
| 111 | Stacey Hagen (D) vs Cecelie Williams (R) | Republican | Cecelie Williams (R) | R+40 | R+35 32.6% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 112 | Dave Rekosh (D) vs Ed Callahan (R) | Republican | Open (retired) | R+32 | R+26 36.9% D | D +12 vs R+39 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 113 | Ashley Drury (D) vs Phil Amato (R) | Republican | Phil Amato (R) | R+29 | R+24 38.2% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 114 | Jessie Shepherd (D) vs Ann Moloney (R) | Republican | Open (other) | R+36 | R+29 35.6% D | D +11 vs R+40 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 115 | David George (D) vs Bill Lucas (R) | Republican | Bill Lucas (R) | R+47 | R+42 29.1% D | D +6 vs R+48 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 116 | Whitney Wisker-Brooks (D) vs Jason Green (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+54 | R+46 26.9% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 117 | Eli Flowers (D) vs Becky Laubinger (R) | Republican | Becky Laubinger (R) | R+50 | R+45 27.3% D | D +7 vs R+52 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 118 | Sarah Rachel Puckett (D) vs Amy DeClue (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+56 | R+47 26.5% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 119 | Amy Thompson (D) vs Brad Banderman (R) | Republican | Brad Banderman (R) | R+39 | R+35 32.4% D | D +9 vs R+44 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 120 | Ray Bruno (D) vs John W Hewkin (R) | Republican | John Hewkin (R) | R+64 | R+56 21.9% D | D +4 vs R+60 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 121 | Miguel Arellanes (D) vs Keith Pritchard (R) | Republican | Open (running for other office) | R+36 | R+31 34.4% D | D +12 vs R+43 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 122 | Dan Victor (D) vs Tara J Peters (R) | Republican | Tara Peters (R) | R+41 | R+38 30.9% D | D +8 vs R+46 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 123 | Cody Hutcheson (D) vs Jeff Vernetti (R) | Republican | Jeff Vernetti (R) | R+53 | R+48 25.8% D | D +5 vs R+53 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 124 | Tara Hallmark (D) vs Kevin Onstott (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+66 | R+58 21.1% D | D +8 vs R+66 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 125 | Lynda C Jones (D) vs Dane Diehl (R) | Republican | Dane Diehl (R) | R+62 | R+59 20.5% D | D +8 vs R+67 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 126 | Melissa Perry (D) vs Jim Kalberloh (R) | Republican | Jim Kalberloh (R) | R+53 | R+50 25.0% D | D +8 vs R+58 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 127 | Marvin Manring (D) vs Brenden J. Kelley (R), Racheal Martin (Independent) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+70 | R+62 18.9% D | D +9 vs R+71 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 128 | Michael L. Martin (D) vs Christopher D. Warwick (R), Shane Sawyer (Independent) | Republican | Christopher Warwick (R) | R+60 | R+57 21.3% D | D +6 vs R+64 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 129 | John Gray (D) vs Will Worsham (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+60 | R+54 23.0% D | D +11 vs R+65 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 130 | Leslie Jones (D) vs Bishop Davidson (R) | Republican | Bishop Davidson (R) | R+35 | R+28 35.8% D | D +7 vs R+36 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 131 | Ashley Cossins (D) vs Bill Owen (R) | Republican | Bill Owen (R) | R+50 | R+45 27.6% D | D +7 vs R+52 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 132 | Jeremy Dean (D) vs Russ Gosselin (R) | Democratic | Jeremy Dean (D) | D+5 | D+17 58.4% D | D +14 vs D+3 in 2024 | Solid D, 98% D | |
| 133 | Katelyn Zach (D) vs Jerry Angelo (R) | Republican | Open (running for other office) | R+1 | D+4 52.0% D | D +16 vs R+12 in 2024 | Likely D, 88% D | |
| 134 | K. Grant (D) vs Alex Riley (R) | Republican | Alex Riley (R) | R+22 | R+18 40.8% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, 99% R | |
| 135 | John Michael (Johnny) Chiles (D) vs Michael Hasty (R) | Democratic | Open (running for other office) | D+6 | D+13 56.7% D | D +3 vs D+10 in 2024 | Solid D, 98% D | |
| 136 | Stephanie Hein (D) vs Jacey Buckles (R) | Democratic | Stephanie Hein (D) | D+3 | D+13 56.3% D | D +11 vs D+2 in 2024 | Solid D, 97% D | |
| 137 | Bryce F. Lockwood (D) vs Darin Chappell (R) | Republican | Darin Chappell (R) | R+37 | R+34 33.2% D | D +7 vs R+41 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 138 | Chris Daugherty (D) vs Burt Whaley (R) | Republican | Burt Whaley (R) | R+62 | R+58 21.1% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 139 | No Democrat vs Bob Titus (R) | Republican | Bob Titus (R) | R+48 | — | — | Uncontested R | Uncontested R |
| 140 | Julia E. Curran (D) vs Jamie Ray Gragg (R) | Republican | Jamie Ray Gragg (R) | R+51 | R+46 27.0% D | D +7 vs R+53 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 141 | Darrel (Mike) Swofford (D) vs Melissa Schmidt (R) | Republican | Melissa Schmidt (R) | R+71 | R+69 15.3% D | D +7 vs R+76 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 142 | Josh Ray (D) vs Jeff Brown (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+63 | R+56 22.2% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 143 | Marsha Snodgrass (D) vs Bennie Cook (R) | Republican | Bennie Cook (R) | R+67 | R+63 18.5% D | D +8 vs R+71 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 144 | Andrew J Eye (D) vs Chris Dodson Dinkins (R) | Republican | Open (lost primary) | R+65 | R+58 21.2% D | D +7 vs R+65 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 145 | Carl Kinsky (D) vs Bryant Wolfin (R) | Republican | Bryant Wolfin (R) | R+55 | R+51 24.7% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 146 | Mary Harriet Talbut (D) vs Lucas Green (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+67 | R+61 19.4% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 147 | Tim Palmer (D) vs John Voss (R), Greg Tlapek (Libertarian) | Republican | John Voss (R) | R+24 | R+22 39.2% D | D +8 vs R+29 in 2024 | Solid R, 98% R | |
| 148 | Casey Carlisle (D) vs David A. Dolan (R) | Republican | David Dolan (R) | R+61 | R+57 21.5% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 149 | John Armbruster (D) vs Scott Crumpecker (R) | Republican | Open (resigned) | R+52 | R+45 27.6% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 150 | No Democrat vs Cameron Bunting Parker (R) | Republican | Cameron Parker (R) | R+69 | — | — | Uncontested R | Uncontested R |
| 151 | Pam Proffitt-Rowland (D) vs Steve W Jordan (R) | Republican | Steve Jordan (R) | R+75 | R+67 16.6% D | D +4 vs R+70 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 152 | Corretta Bishop (D) vs Jeff Shawan (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+63 | R+56 21.9% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 153 | Les Majors (D) vs Keith Wayne Elliott (R) | Republican | Keith Elliott (R) | R+72 | R+66 17.1% D | D +5 vs R+71 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 154 | Jojo Stewart (D) vs Lisa K Durnell (R) | Republican | Lisa Durnell (R) | R+65 | R+64 18.2% D | D +6 vs R+70 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 155 | Joshua Berzins (D) vs Matthew Overcast (R) | Republican | Matthew Overcast (R) | R+66 | R+61 19.4% D | D +5 vs R+66 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 156 | Trent Davis (D) vs Brian H. Seitz (R) | Republican | Brian Seitz (R) | R+57 | R+51 24.3% D | D +7 vs R+58 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 157 | Bradley Bos (D) vs Mitch Boggs (R) | Republican | Mitch Boggs (R) | R+62 | R+57 21.4% D | unopposed (R) in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 158 | Chris Foster (D) vs Scott Cupps (R) | Republican | Scott Cupps (R) | R+63 | R+61 19.5% D | D +9 vs R+70 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 159 | No Democrat vs Joel Mace (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+69 | — | — | Uncontested R | Uncontested R |
| 160 | Angela Thomas (D) vs Cheryle Perkins (R) | Republican | Open (resigned) | R+56 | R+48 25.8% D | D +8 vs R+56 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R | |
| 161 | Aaron Joseph Metzger (D) vs Louise Secker (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+25 | R+18 40.9% D | D +10 vs R+28 in 2024 | Solid R, 98% R | |
| 162 | No Democrat vs Roger Koch (R) | Republican | Open (term-limited) | R+54 | — | — | Uncontested R | Uncontested R |
| 163 | Brenna Barksdale (D) vs Cathy Jo Loy (R) | Republican | Cathy Jo Loy (R) | R+54 | R+51 24.3% D | D +5 vs R+57 in 2024 | Solid R, >99% R |
Candidates: Secretary of State certified list. Leans: 2024 precinct results allocated to the 2022 district plans. Incumbents and open seats: Ballotpedia. Other forecast: State Navigate, Nov 2, 2026. Method.
Sources6ShowHide
- Missouri Secretary of State, 2026 general election certified candidate list , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- Missouri Secretary of State, official election results (grand totals, 2016 to 2024) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- 2024 district leans: Secretary of State precinct results for president, governor and US Senate, allocated to the 2022 House and Senate district plans (Missouri Office of Administration) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- Ballotpedia, Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2026 (incumbents, open seats, district pages) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- State Navigate, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 2, 2026.
- On Point Politics, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 1, 2026.