House District 1
Uncontested. Jeff Farnan (R) has no major-party opponent on the certified ballot. The model treats this as an uncontested Republican seat, not a competitive-race estimate.
Last successful model check: Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. Site-wide published figures last changed: Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. Source verification dates differ from calculation dates.
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Missouri Election, House District 1, published forecast Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. https://www.missourielection.com/district/house/1. Pre-election model estimate; sources and uncertainty on the page.
Estimated vote share and district context
- —Projected marginno contest to forecast
- —Shift since the last resultno result on these lines to compare
- R+532024 district leangovernor-weighted: half governor, a quarter each president and US Senate
- Uncontested RState Navigate, Nov 2, 2026independent rating, for comparison
Forecast: this site, 100,000 runs. Lean: 2024 precinct results allocated to the 2022 district plan. Independent forecasts are dated and linked below.
Where this seat sits
Next more Republican
None; this seat is at the end of the line.
Next more Democratic
Every House seat from the safest Republican to the safest Democratic, in the forecast of Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. The heavy rule is two-thirds (109 of 163).
The race
- Democrat
- No Democrat on the ballot
- Republican
- Jeff Farnan
- Incumbent
- Jeff Farnan (R), running again
- Held by
- Republican after the last election
- Rating
- Uncontested R
Candidates: Secretary of State certified list. Incumbent and open-seat reason: Ballotpedia and the Missouri House and Senate rosters. Incumbent text was entered by hand where the sources disagreed; see the methodology’s decisions log.
Current member
Jeff Farnan (Republican)
In the House since 2022. On the 2026 ballot for this seat.
Committees: Conservation and Natural Resources, Chairman; Agriculture; Professional Registration and Licensing; Special Committee on Rural Issues.
Representative Jeff Farnan, a Republican, represents Atchison, Gentry, Holt, and Nodaway counties (District 1) in the Missouri House of Representatives. He was elected to his first two-year term in November 2022.
Missouri legislature member pages (house.mo.gov, senate.mo.gov), collected Sep 7, 2026 through the PROMO roster. Whether the member is on the ballot comes from this site’s own incumbent record for the seat.
How the district voted in 2024
The Democratic share of the two-party vote inside these district lines in the three 2024 statewide races, and the margin it implies. The forecast’s lean weights the governor race at one half and the other two at one quarter each (decision D-12).
| 2024 race | Dem two-party share | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| President | 23.4% | R+53 |
| Governor | 22.3% | R+55 |
| US Senate | 25.7% | R+49 |
| Composite | 23.4% | R+53 |
Secretary of State precinct results, allocated to the 2022 district plans (Missouri Office of Administration). Two-party share leaves out third-party and write-in votes.
Legislative results on the current map
Democratic share of the two-party vote, which leaves out other candidates. Legislative results: Secretary of State, 2016 to 2024; the dashed line marks the new district map first used in 2022, so earlier points describe different ground. The dotted line is the district’s 2024 lean from the statewide races. Forecast of Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT.
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Dem votes | Rep votes | Other | Dem two-party share | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jess Piper | Jeff Farnan | 3,225 | 9,762 | 0 | 24.8% | Republican |
| 2024 | None | Jeff Farnan (inc.) | 0 | 15,770 | 0 | Uncontested | Republican |
Secretary of State official results.
Earlier results, on the old map
District lines changed in 2022. These 2016 to 2020 results are for the district that carried this number on the previous map, which may cover different ground. They are not used by the forecast.
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Dem votes | Rep votes | Other | Dem two-party share | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | None | Allen Andrews (inc.) | 0 | 14,022 | 0 | Uncontested | Republican |
| 2018 | Paul Taylor | Allen Andrews (inc.) | 2,672 | 10,023 | 0 | 21.0% | Republican |
| 2020 | None | Allen Andrews (inc.) | 0 | 14,724 | 0 | Uncontested | Republican |
Our forecast
Independent forecasters’ published assessments appear below for comparison; their ratings are not this site’s model estimate. How the model works, and how it did on 2022 and 2024. The Senate.
Why this forecast
Jeff Farnan (R) has no Democratic opponent on the ballot, so the model counts this seat for Republicans in every simulation (D-07).
Independent forecasts
Other forecasters’ published assessments, kept separate from this site’s model. Sources cover different sets of districts.
- State Navigate, Nov 2, 2026
- Uncontested R · <1% published chance of a Democratic win
Candidate experience: scores, evidence and limits
This is a recorded model-input classification, not a judgment of competence or an endorsement. Scale: 0 means no qualifying office or same-seat run recorded; 1 minor elected office or a qualifying previous run; 2 substantial local office or former state legislator; 3 sitting state legislator. A zero does not prove someone has no public-service experience. Missing scores remain unknown.
Compiled Nov 1, 2026. These are the input compiler’s records and source links; they are not a claim every linked biography was independently verified today.
No candidate-experience record is available for this district. That does not mean either candidate has zero experience.
Experience scoring decisions · Report a factual correction with a source
Published versions and source checks
Candidate experience coverage
The candidate-experience scoring notes report that some Ballotpedia checks relied on search snippets, not full pages.
Last archived district record: Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. This bundle matches the current published files. No district fields changed between the two latest archived versions.
Latest archived snapshot (JSON) · Full seats (CSV) · File checksums and provenance · Previous record (Nov 3, 12:24 pm CT)
Full immutable district records begin at this baseline. Earlier headline history is not a full snapshot archive. Browse archive versions · Headline update history.
Sources7ShowHide
- Missouri Secretary of State, 2026 general election certified candidate list , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- Missouri Secretary of State, official election results (grand totals, 2016 to 2024) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- 2024 district leans: Secretary of State precinct results for president, governor and US Senate, allocated to the 2022 House and Senate district plans (Missouri Office of Administration) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- Ballotpedia, Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2026 (incumbents, open seats, district pages) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- State Navigate, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 2, 2026.
- On Point Politics, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 1, 2026.
- Missouri House (house.mo.gov) and Senate (senate.mo.gov) member pages: name, party, first-elected year, leadership, committees and biography, collected through the PROMO legislator roster (RavBogard/promo-legislators) , accessed Sep 7, 2026.