Fred Wellman v Ann Wagner
Fred Wellman (D) is challenging Ann Wagner (R), the incumbent, in Missouri's 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026.
Model forecast: chance of winning
These are model win chances, not poll results.
Fred Wellman (D)
about44in 100
simulated elections end with a Wellman win.
Ann Wagner (R)
about56in 100
simulated elections end with a Wagner win.
Shown per 100 simulated elections for comparison. This model run used 100,000 simulations, generated Nov 3, 12:24 pm CT.
Estimated vote share
The model estimates Fred Wellman at 49.6% of the Democratic and Republican votes. This is a model estimate of votes, not a survey measurement.
The middle 80% of simulations spans 45.5% to 53.7% of that two-party vote.
The band is the 10th to 90th percentile of simulated Democratic vote share; the tick is the expected share. The heavy rule is 50% of the two-party vote. Forecast run Nov 3, 12:24 pm CT, seed 20261103; inputs as of Nov 3, 2026.
Why this forecast
Fred Wellman (D) is expected to take 49.6% of the two-party vote against Ann Wagner (R). The model blends its estimates, each with its weight.
| Part of the expected share | Effect |
|---|---|
| Fundamentals (48.4% × 33%) | 15.9 pts |
| Polls (50.5% × 51%) | 25.7 pts |
| Betting markets (49.0% × 16%) | 8.0 pts |
| Centre of the blend | 49.6% |
- Before any poll, the model expects Wellman to take 48.4%. The national generic ballot is 54.2% of the two-party vote (Democrats lead the national generic ballot by 8.4 points), and in 2024 this district voted 3.3 pts less Democratic than the nation for president. Incumbency is worth 2.0 pts to the Republican and the spending gap 0.5 to the Republican.
- 4 polls, adjusted for partisan sponsors, average 50.5%. Together they count as 1.6 fresh 400-person polls.
- Betting markets price Wellman at 40.2% to win, which the model reads as a 49.0% share, counted at half a poll’s weight. Only freshly priced markets count (D-C7).
- The blend is 33% fundamentals, 51% polls and 16% betting markets, which centres the expected Wellman share at 49.6%.
- The 4 outside ratings shown on this page are for comparison; the model does not use them.
Eight times in ten the simulated Wellman share lands between 45.5% and 53.7%.
Wellman finishes ahead in about 44,200 of 100,000 simulated elections.
What the model does not know. Ratings are not inputs; markets count only when freshly priced (D-C7).
Poll results
Reported support is the poll result recorded by its linked source. The adjusted two-party share applies the model’s corrections to that poll; it is not another survey result or a win chance.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Reported Wellman / Wagner | Wellman two-party share (reported) | Model-adjusted Wellman share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling · Sponsored by House Majority PAC (Democratic-aligned) | Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026 | 631 LV | 46% / 45% | 50.5% | 49.0% | 0.79 |
| Emerson College | Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026 | 401 LV | 51% / 46% | 52.6% | 52.6% | 0.52 |
| Remington Research Group · Sponsor-released (Republican-aligned) | Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 | 565 LV | 42% / 43% | 49.4% | 50.9% | 0.24 |
| FM3 Research · Sponsored by Wellman campaign (Democratic-aligned) | May 26, 2026 to May 31, 2026 | 600 LV | 41% / 44% | 48.2% | 46.7% | 0.01 |
| Average | 4 polls | 51.0% | 50.5% | 1.55 | ||
Two-party shares set undecided voters aside. Corrections include adjusting party- or campaign-released polls toward the other side. Weight reflects recency and sample size.
Polls through Oct 20, 2026; pollster links open the available source, a release or compilation.
Fundamentals
Before any poll, the district’s presidential lean, the national environment, incumbency and money give a starting point. The polls then move it.
| Step | Democratic share |
|---|---|
| National generic-ballot Democratic share | 54.2% |
| District against the nation, 2024 president (46.0% here) | −3.3 pts |
| Incumbency (Wagner) | −2.0 pts |
| Campaign money | −0.5 pts |
| Share from fundamentals | 48.4% |
Each step adds to the one above and they sum to the total. 2024 presidential result on the current district lines, against the nation’s 49.2%; national share from the generic-ballot average (Democrats +8.4 on Nov 3, 2026); campaign money as of Oct 14, 2026. Inputs as of Nov 3, 2026.
Markets and ratings
Prediction markets
| Platform | As of | Market chance | In the forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Nov 3, 2026 | Yes | |
| Polymarket | Nov 3, 2026 | Yes |
Market price on the date shown. A price counts only when it is fetched with a timestamp within the last 36 hours; counted prices together carry 0.5 times the weight of one poll.
Race ratings
| Rater | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | Mar 7, 2025 |
Ratings are the raters’ own, shown for comparison.
Money
Fred Wellman has raised $2.2M and spent $1.9M. Ann Wagner has raised $4.2M and spent $5.7M.
Federal Election Commission filings as of Oct 14, 2026. Filing.
What our House seats imply
The Missouri House seats inside this district, weighted by how much of each lies in it, add up to a Democratic share of 44.0%. The adjusted poll average is 50.5%, which is 6.5 points higher. These seat figures are taken before the district polls feed back into the seat forecast. The seats are forecast from legislative results and the district polls measure this race directly, so a large gap means one of the two is missing something about this contest. The district forecast above weighs both, and the part of the poll surprise that speaks to Missouri’s political environment also moves the seat forecast a little (see the methodology).
| House seat | Presidential vote of the seat inside this district | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| House District 110 | 6% | |
| House District 109 | 5% | |
| House District 101 | 5% | |
| House District 90 | 5% | |
| House District 96 | 5% | |
| House District 88 | 5% | |
| House District 95 | 5% | |
| House District 100 | 5% | |
| House District 89 | 5% | |
| House District 98 | 5% | |
| House District 92 | 5% | |
| House District 94 | 5% | |
| House District 119 | 4% | |
| House District 83 | 4% | |
| House District 107 | 3% | |
| House District 93 | 3% | |
| House District 42 | 3% | |
| House District 118 | 3% | |
| House District 108 | 3% | |
| House District 91 | 2% | |
| House District 102 | 2% | |
| House District 87 | 2% | |
| House District 71 | 2% | |
| House District 103 | 2% | |
| House District 63 | 2% | |
| House District 99 | 1% |
2024 presidential lean in the district 45.8%; current-environment share 48.8%; seat-implied share 44.0%. Seat forecasts from the Missouri House model; inputs as of Nov 3, 2026.
How the model’s win chance has changed
Latest model win chance: Wellman 44%; Republican 56%.
Win chances by published version
| Published (Central) | Wellman win chance | Republican win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 10:26 am CT | 43% | 57% |
| Nov 1, 11:40 am CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 1, 1:33 pm CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 1, 3:56 pm CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 1, 7:29 pm CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 2, 3:22 am CT | 43% | 57% |
| Nov 2, 12:04 pm CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 2, 8:53 pm CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 2, 10:10 pm CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 3, 4:44 am CT | 44% | 56% |
| Nov 3, 12:24 pm CT | 44% | 56% |
Sources4ShowHide
- Polls and ratings (Wikipedia), as of Nov 1, 2026.
- FEC totals, as of Oct 14, 2026.
- PollCheck generic congressional ballot average, as of Nov 3, 2026.
- OpenElections Missouri 2024 precinct file, as of Nov 5, 2024.