Ballot measures

The chance each measure passes

1. Abortion rights and gender-transition care for minors

   Amendment 3 · Leans toward failing

   If Yes

   The 2024 abortion-rights amendment is repealed. Abortion could be restricted again, with exceptions for emergencies, fetal anomalies, and rape or incest under 12 weeks. Minors would need parental or judicial consent, and public funding of abortion would be barred with limited exceptions. Gender-transition surgery, cross-sex hormones and puberty blockers for minors would be banned in the constitution, with exceptions for specific medical conditions.

   If No

   The 2024 amendment stays: abortion remains a constitutional right through fetal viability, and no constitutional ban on transition care for minors is added.

   Chance it passesPasses 30%70% FailsThe forecast’s: the share of simulations in which Yes clears 50%.

   Our recommendationNoThe site’s view, not a forecast. Repeals the abortion rights voters approved in 2024.

   10% yes50% to pass90%

   Expected yes share (a share of the vote, not a chance): 45.9%, 80% range 34.8% to 57.0%.

   Why?

   Polls average 43.0% yes, 43.3% no and 13.7% undecided (3 polls; the latest, Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Oct 15, carries 73% of the weight).

   Amendment 3: how the expected yes share is made

   Part of the expected yes share	Points of yes share
   Polls’ yes share (43.0% × 47%)	20.3 pts
   Undecided voters (13.7% × 0.22 × 47%)	1.4 pts
   Starting estimate (45.7% × 53%)	24.2 pts
   Expected yes share	45.9%

   • In past Missouri measures, results ended up about 0.22 times the undecided share above the final-poll yes. That is an average correction from past measures, not a measured split of this measure’s undecided voters. It puts the polls at 46.1%.
   • Our starting estimate is 45.7%: the 2024 abortion-rights amendment’s vote, reweighted to the expected 2026 electorate (51.7% keep rights) and moved by the same statewide swing as the seat model (0.784 × 3.3 points), gives repeal 45.7%, with no step toward the polls, which count separately (a judgment, decision D-M10).
   • The model weighs the polls at 47% and the starting estimate at 53% (the polls’ combined weight, 35.8, against 40 for the starting estimate), so the expected yes share is 45.9%.

   Eight times in ten the simulated yes share lands between 34.8% and 57.0%. The range allows for the polls and the starting estimate both being off, and for polls missing in the same direction on every measure.

   Passes 30%70% Fails

   Yes clears 50% in about 30,390 of 100,000 simulated elections.

   What the model does not know. Campaign money and betting markets are not inputs; the starting estimates are our judgment, written down in the decisions log.

   Voter guide: what Yes and No mean →

   Details

   Ballot identifier

   Legislative referral, HCS HJR 73

   Referred by

   The legislature

   Official ballot title

   Amendment 3 (HCS HJR 73): repeal 2024 reproductive-rights amendment; abortion only for emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape/incest under 12 weeks; parental consent; ban gender-transition procedures for minors

   Status quo

   A No vote keeps the status quo

2. Laws passed by voter initiative

   Amendment 6 · Leans toward passing

   If Yes

   Initiative and referendum become a fundamental right, and the legislature could not weaken those powers. It could change or repeal a voter-passed law only if at least 80% of both chambers agree to send the change to voters. Courts could revise ballot summaries. Current signature thresholds and the simple-majority rule stay.

   If No

   Nothing changes.

   Chance it passesPasses 70%30% FailsThe forecast’s: the share of simulations in which Yes clears 50%.

   Our recommendationYesThe site’s view, not a forecast. Protects voters’ power to pass laws by initiative.

   10% yes50% to pass90%

   Expected yes share (a share of the vote, not a chance): 54.5%, 80% range 42.9% to 66.2%.

   Why?

   Polls average 46.5% yes, 24.7% no and 28.8% undecided (2 polls; the latest, Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Oct 15, carries 73% of the weight).

   Amendment 6: how the expected yes share is made

   Part of the expected yes share	Points of yes share
   Polls’ yes share (46.5% × 47%)	21.9 pts
   Undecided voters (28.8% × 0.22 × 47%)	3.0 pts
   Starting estimate (56.0% × 53%)	29.6 pts
   Expected yes share	54.5%

   • In past Missouri measures, results ended up about 0.22 times the undecided share above the final-poll yes. That is an average correction from past measures, not a measured split of this measure’s undecided voters. It puts the polls at 52.9%.
   • Our starting estimate is 56.0%: voters rejected the Republican initiative curbs 80% to 20% in August 2026, and polls show Yes well ahead with about 30% undecided, but this is a complex structural amendment opposed by the governor and Republican leaders, and undecided voters have historically broken toward No.
   • The model weighs the polls at 47% and the starting estimate at 53% (the polls’ combined weight, 35.6, against 40 for the starting estimate), so the expected yes share is 54.5%.

   Eight times in ten the simulated yes share lands between 42.9% and 66.2%. The range allows for the polls and the starting estimate both being off, and for polls missing in the same direction on every measure.

   Passes 70%30% Fails

   Yes clears 50% in about 70,160 of 100,000 simulated elections.

   What the model does not know. Campaign money and betting markets are not inputs; the starting estimates are our judgment, written down in the decisions log.

   Voter guide: what Yes and No mean →

   Details

   Ballot identifier

   Initiative petition (no bill number)

   Referred by

   Initiative petition

   Official ballot title

   Amendment 6 (initiative petition): initiative/referendum a fundamental right; legislature needs 80% of both chambers to refer changes to voter-approved statutes

   Status quo

   A No vote keeps the status quo

3. A state endowment to replace taxes

   Amendment 7 · Leans toward failing

   If Yes

   The Treasurer invests a permanent state endowment. It cannot be spent until its earnings could replace state taxes; then those taxes end and cannot return except if the fund cannot meet its obligations because of insolvency, a revenue shortfall or program failure. Spending is then capped at 3% of the fund's five-year average value. The measure itself appropriates nothing.

   If No

   Nothing changes.

   Chance it passesPasses 27%73% FailsThe forecast’s: the share of simulations in which Yes clears 50%.

   Our recommendationNoThe site’s view, not a forecast. Ends state taxes for good once a new endowment’s earnings could replace them, and they could not return except if the fund cannot meet its obligations because of insolvency, a revenue shortfall or program failure.

   10% yes50% to pass90%

   Expected yes share (a share of the vote, not a chance): 42.1%, 80% range 24.0% to 60.0%.

   Why?

   No public poll. The expected yes share, 42.0%, is our starting estimate alone: there is no poll and no campaign on either side; the ballot title’s appeal (“instead of taxing Missouri residents”) is set against voters rejecting the income-tax phase-out 83% to 17% in August 2026 and a 2022 treasurer-investment amendment that took 45.7%; low-information legislative referrals in Missouri have split.

   • The range is wide because unpolled Missouri referrals have varied widely (D-M6).

   Eight times in ten the simulated yes share lands between 24.0% and 60.0%.

   Passes 27%73% Fails

   Yes clears 50% in about 27,260 of 100,000 simulated elections.

   What the model does not know. Campaign money and betting markets are not inputs; the starting estimates are our judgment, written down in the decisions log. There is no public poll.

   Voter guide: what Yes and No mean →

   Details

   Ballot identifier

   Legislative referral, SS SCS SJR 95

   Referred by

   The legislature

   Official ballot title

   Amendment 7 (SS SCS SJR 95): Show-Me Prosperity Fund, permanent endowment to replace state taxes

   Status quo

   A No vote keeps the status quo

4. Electing and removing county sheriffs

   Amendment 8 · Leans toward passing

   If Yes

   The election of county sheriffs and their duties are written into the constitution. A sheriff could be removed only through a quo warranto action brought by the Attorney General. St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County are exempt.

   If No

   The existing statutes stay.

   Chance it passesPasses 73%27% FailsThe forecast’s: the share of simulations in which Yes clears 50%.

   Our recommendationNoThe site’s view, not a forecast. Writes rules for electing and removing county sheriffs into the constitution, with St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County exempt.

   10% yes50% to pass90%

   Expected yes share (a share of the vote, not a chance): 58.0%, 80% range 40.0% to 76.1%.

   Why?

   No public poll. The expected yes share, 58.0%, is our starting estimate alone: there is no poll and no organized opposition; the ballot title writes existing practice into the constitution; law-enforcement referrals have ranged from 39% to 63% yes, and the August 2026 elected-assessor referral passed with 76.9%.

   • The range is wide because unpolled Missouri referrals have varied widely (D-M6).

   Eight times in ten the simulated yes share lands between 40.0% and 76.1%.

   Passes 73%27% Fails

   Yes clears 50% in about 73,060 of 100,000 simulated elections.

   What the model does not know. Campaign money and betting markets are not inputs; the starting estimates are our judgment, written down in the decisions log. There is no public poll.

   Voter guide: what Yes and No mean →

   Details

   Ballot identifier

   Legislative referral, CCS HCS SS SJR 87

   Referred by

   The legislature

   Official ballot title

   Amendment 8 (CCS HCS SS SJR 87): constitutionally require elected county sheriffs; removal only by quo warranto from the Attorney General

   Status quo

   A No vote keeps the status quo

5. The 2025 congressional map

   Proposition A · Leans toward failing

   If Yes

   The congressional map the legislature passed in 2025 is approved, starting with the 2028 elections.

   If No

   The 2022 map stays. Neither answer changes the districts used on November 3.

   Chance it passesPasses 20%80% FailsThe forecast’s: the share of simulations in which Yes clears 50%.

   Our recommendationNoThe site’s view, not a forecast. Locks in the 2025 map drawn to favour Republicans in seven of eight seats.

   10% yes50% to pass90%

   Expected yes share (a share of the vote, not a chance): 42.7%, 80% range 31.0% to 54.5%.

   Why?

   Polls average 35.1% yes, 32.1% no and 32.9% undecided (2 polls; the latest, SLU/YouGov Aug 24, carries 99% of the weight).

   Proposition A: how the expected yes share is made

   Part of the expected yes share	Points of yes share
   Polls’ yes share (35.1% × 43%)	15.1 pts
   Undecided voters (32.9% × 0.22 × 43%)	3.1 pts
   Starting estimate (43.0% × 57%)	24.5 pts
   Expected yes share	42.7%

   • In past Missouri measures, results ended up about 0.22 times the undecided share above the final-poll yes. That is an average correction from past measures, not a measured split of this measure’s undecided voters. It puts the polls at 42.3%.
   • Our starting estimate is 43.0%: Yes approves the 2025 map and No keeps the 2022 map; the February SLU poll had the map 41% to 44%, and the 2018 veto referendum lost with 32.5%; a Republican-leaning state and a favourable ballot title pull the other way.
   • The model weighs the polls at 43% and the starting estimate at 57% (the polls’ combined weight, 30.3, against 40 for the starting estimate), so the expected yes share is 42.7%.

   Eight times in ten the simulated yes share lands between 31.0% and 54.5%. The range allows for the polls and the starting estimate both being off, and for polls missing in the same direction on every measure.

   Passes 20%80% Fails

   Yes clears 50% in about 20,210 of 100,000 simulated elections.

   What the model does not know. Campaign money and betting markets are not inputs; the starting estimates are our judgment, written down in the decisions log.

   Voter guide: what Yes and No mean →

   Details

   Ballot identifier

   Referendum petition on HB 1 (2025 Second Extraordinary Session)

   Referred by

   Referendum petition

   Official ballot title

   Proposition A: veto referendum on HB 1 (2025 Second Extraordinary Session) congressional map

   Status quo

   A No vote keeps the status quo

“Chance it passes” is the forecast’s; “Our recommendation” is the site’s view and is not part of the forecast. Each strip is the measure’s yes share: the band is the range the middle 80% of simulations fall in (10th to 90th percentile), the tick is the expected yes share, and the heavy rule is 50%, the line a measure has to clear. The chance it passes is the share of simulations in which yes clears it.

Measure forecast of Nov 3, 2026, 100,000 runs, seed 20261103. The If Yes and If No lines paraphrase the Secretary of State’s fair ballot language (read Nov 1, 2026). Polls and money: the sources below.

Every measure

The poll average weights each poll by its recency and sample size. The expected yes share and its range are the forecast’s, after undecided voters are allocated and the polls are shrunk toward the prior.

Range: 10th to 90th percentile of the simulated yes share. Money: committee totals for and against from Missouri Ethics Commission filings, as reported by the Missouri Independent on Oct 23, 2026. Path to the ballot: Secretary of State and Ballotpedia.

How these are forecast

The likeliest combinations

Because the measures share a swing and a polling error, their outcomes are not independent. These are the 6 most common sets of results across the simulations.

Outcomes not in the table make up the remaining 41% of simulations.