Scorecard
Results are not yet certified. This page fills in once the Secretary of State certifies the November 3, 2026 results; until then it holds the rule the forecast will be scored by.
The pre-close forecast
The pre-close forecast will be saved at 6:55 pm Central on November 3.
What will be scored, and when
- Brier score and log loss over the contested seats. Both are scores, not chances; lower is better.
- Seats called correctly: how many contested seats the more likely side won.
- Calibration: of the seats given a chance in each ten-point band, how often the Democrat actually won.
- Whether each chamber’s Democratic seat count lands inside the forecast’s 10th to 90th percentile range.
- The same scores for comparison forecasts frozen with the pre-close snapshot, where they publish numerical probabilities, and for a lean-only baseline.
Scoring starts when certified results are loaded; the forecast is scored as saved before polls closed.
Comparison sources
Before polls close, the currently available sources are listed below. Scoring will use only the copies retained with the pre-close forecast, never a later revision.
- State Navigate, Nov 2, 2026. 197 district records; numerical-probability coverage may be smaller.
- On Point Politics, Nov 1, 2026. 25 district records; numerical-probability coverage may be smaller.
The pre-registered scoring rule
Original statement in this published model version
Scored after certification: Brier score and log loss over contested seats, seats called correctly, calibration by probability bin, and whether the chamber seat counts fall inside the 10th-90th percentile range. Compared against State Navigate (Nov 2), On Point Politics (Nov 1) and a lean-only baseline.
The scoring field of data/forecast/forecast_2026.json, written before the election. Additional dated comparison sources are documented in decision D-28; only copies frozen before polls close are eligible for comparison scoring.
What is on the record
The chamber figures the scorecard will hold the forecast to.
| Chamber | Republicans expected | Democrats expected | Dem 10th to 90th | Chance of each outcome on two-thirds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | 103 | 60 | 54 to 66 | |
| Senate | 22.5 | 11.5 | 10 to 12 |
Seat-level probabilities are on the House and Senate pages and each district’s page.
Sources3ShowHide
- Missouri Secretary of State, official election results (grand totals, 2016 to 2024) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- State Navigate, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 2, 2026.
- On Point Politics, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 1, 2026.