About Missouri Election

Every number is dated and sourced, the method is written down in plain language, corrections are visible, and a scorecard follows once the results are official. It is independent of any congregation, party or campaign, and it does not endorse a candidate.

Missouri Election is written for Democrats. The forecast is not: the model does not know who is reading, and the numbers are the same ones it would show anyone. The recommended votes on the ballot measures are this site’s own view, and are kept apart from the chance each measure passes.

Who made it

Daniel Bogard chose the questions, the sources and the rules. The data pipeline, the model, the simulation and this site were built with help from Claude, an AI by Anthropic, working in Claude Code; the methodology and every judgment call about a seat are logged in the project’s repository. Daniel is responsible for what the site says.

Updated every hour

The forecast is not locked. The model is re-run every hour from now until the results are final, and a new version is published whenever a figure changes: a new poll, a candidate change, a corrected input and, from 7 pm Central on November 3, 2026, the count itself as counties report. Headline versions are kept in Updates; full district snapshots are retained from the archive baseline onward. The version on the site now is of Nov 3, 2026.

After the Secretary of State certifies the results, the forecast is scored publicly on the scorecard, using the last version published before polls closed: Brier score and log loss over contested seats, seats called correctly, calibration by probability bin, and whether each chamber’s seat count fell inside the 10th to 90th percentile range, compared against the dated independent forecasts frozen with the pre-close snapshot and a lean-only baseline.

Sources

Candidates come from the Missouri Secretary of State’s certified list; results from the Secretary of State’s official grand totals; district leans from the 2024 precinct results allocated to the 2022 district plans; incumbents and open seats from Ballotpedia and the chambers’ rosters; the national environment from Silver Bulletin’s generic ballot average and the Downballot’s special-elections tracker; and the comparison ratings from State Navigate. Each page ends with its own list.

Privacy

The site uses Google Analytics to count visits and see which pages are read. It sets no other cookies, has no accounts and stores saved race IDs on your browser only. An address entered in the district finder goes directly to the Census Bureau’s geocoder; this site does not receive or store it. Voluntary reports in the linked Google Form are stored privately by Google for the editor, including any optional contact information you provide; public attribution requires permission.

Reuse

The site’s original text is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0. You may share and adapt it for noncommercial use, giving credit, linking the licence and indicating changes. The underlying election results are public records.

Corrections

Send a correction or public evidence using the private-response form. No sign-in is required. Reports receive editorial review and never automatically change the model.

When a candidate, an incumbent, a result or a figure is found to be wrong, it is corrected on the page and noted here. A corrected input is carried into the next hourly version of the forecast, and the history shows when it changed.

The log of corrections, and every judgment call behind the forecast, is on Decisions and corrections.