House District 106
Toss-up. Jewel Kelly (D) against Travis Wilson (R).
Last successful model check: Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. Site-wide published figures last changed: Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. Source verification dates differ from calculation dates.
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Missouri Election, House District 106, published forecast Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. https://www.missourielection.com/district/house/106. Pre-election model estimate; sources and uncertainty on the page.
Model forecast: chance of winning
These are model win chances, not poll results. Estimated vote share appears separately below.
Jewel Kelly (D)Wins in about 40 of every 100 simulated elections.
Travis Wilson (R)Wins in about 60 of every 100 simulated elections.
Estimated vote share and district context
- R+2Projected marginexpected 49.1% of the two-party vote for the Democrat; seat error sd 2.2%
- D +9Shift since the last resultvs R+11 in 2024, the last general on these lines
- R+42024 district leangovernor-weighted: half governor, a quarter each president and US Senate
- Lean D, 68% DState Navigate, Nov 2, 2026independent rating, for comparison
Forecast: this site, 100,000 runs. Lean: 2024 precinct results allocated to the 2022 district plan. Independent forecasts are dated and linked below.
Where this seat sits
Next more Republican
Next more Democratic
Every House seat from the safest Republican to the safest Democratic, in the forecast of Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. The heavy rule is two-thirds (109 of 163).
The race
- Democrat
- Jewel Kelly
- Republican
- Travis Wilson
- Incumbent
- Travis Wilson (R), running again
- Held by
- Republican after the last election
- Rating
- Toss-up: the favoured party wins in 60% of simulations (Safe is 97% or more, Likely 85 to 97, Lean 65 to 85, else Toss-up)
Candidates: Secretary of State certified list. Incumbent and open-seat reason: Ballotpedia and the Missouri House and Senate rosters. Incumbent text was entered by hand where the sources disagreed; see the methodology’s decisions log.
Current member
Travis Wilson (Republican)
In the House since 2022. On the 2026 ballot for this seat.
Committees: Commerce, Vice-Chairman; Economic Development; Higher Education and Workforce Development; Special Committee on Tourism.
Representative Travis Wilson, a Republican, represents part of St. Charles County (District 106) in the Missouri House of Representatives. He was elected to his first two-year term in November 2022.
Missouri legislature member pages (house.mo.gov, senate.mo.gov), collected Sep 7, 2026 through the PROMO roster. Whether the member is on the ballot comes from this site’s own incumbent record for the seat.
How the district voted in 2024
The Democratic share of the two-party vote inside these district lines in the three 2024 statewide races, and the margin it implies. The forecast’s lean weights the governor race at one half and the other two at one quarter each (decision D-12).
| 2024 race | Dem two-party share | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| President | 48.5% | R+3 |
| Governor | 46.3% | R+7 |
| US Senate | 51.2% | D+2 |
| Composite | 48.1% | R+4 |
Secretary of State precinct results, allocated to the 2022 district plans (Missouri Office of Administration). Two-party share leaves out third-party and write-in votes.
Legislative results on the current map
Democratic share of the two-party vote, which leaves out other candidates. Legislative results: Secretary of State, 2016 to 2024; the dashed line marks the new district map first used in 2022, so earlier points describe different ground. The dotted line is the district’s 2024 lean from the statewide races. The last point is this site’s forecast, with a bar for the 80% range (the 10th to the 90th percentile of the simulated share). Forecast of Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT.
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Dem votes | Rep votes | Other | Dem two-party share | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Ron Odenthal | Travis Wilson | 6,359 | 7,621 | 0 | 45.5% | Republican |
| 2024 | Karen Edge | Travis Wilson (inc.) | 9,091 | 11,236 | 0 | 44.7% | Republican |
Secretary of State official results. How the past result enters the forecast is explained under “Why this forecast” below.
Earlier results, on the old map
District lines changed in 2022. These 2016 to 2020 results are for the district that carried this number on the previous map, which may cover different ground. They are not used by the forecast.
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Dem votes | Rep votes | Other | Dem two-party share | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Michael J Dorwart | Chrissy Sommer (inc.) | 7,281 | 10,447 | 0 | 41.1% | Republican |
| 2018 | Jackie Sclair | Chrissy Sommer (inc.) | 6,462 | 8,784 | 0 | 42.4% | Republican |
| 2020 | Cindy Berne | Adam Schwadron | 9,079 | 9,620 | 0 | 48.6% | Republican |
Our forecast
Forecast of Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT: how often the Democrat’s two-party share fell in each point of the range across 100,000 simulated elections, expected 49.1%. The win chances are counted from the same simulations.
Independent forecasters’ published assessments appear below for comparison; their ratings are not this site’s model estimate. How the model works, and how it did on 2022 and 2024. The Senate.
Why this forecast
Jewel Kelly (D) is expected to take 49.1% of the two-party vote against Travis Wilson (R). The model starts from how the district voted in 2024’s statewide races, 48.1%, and adjusts:
| Part of the expected share | Effect |
|---|---|
| How the district voted in 2024’s statewide races | 48.1% |
| The national mood | +3.3 pts |
| Incumbent on the ballot | −1.2 pts |
| How this seat’s last race ran against expectations | −1.0 pts |
| St. Louis congressional polls | +0.5 pts |
| College graduates in the district | −0.4 pts |
| House races against that lean, 2024 | −0.2 pts |
| August primary turnout | −0.2 pts |
| District polls | +0.2 pts |
| Expected Democratic share | 49.1% |
- Democrats are polling better nationally than they did in 2024. The model moves every seat by the same statewide amount for that (+3.3 pts), less than the national change, because Missouri’s House vote has historically moved a bit over half as much as the nation’s (decision D-03).
- Travis Wilson (R) is on the ballot: −1.2 pts. In a Democratic wave year, Democratic incumbents have gained more than Republican incumbents lose (D-17).
- Travis Wilson ran 1.5 pts ahead of what the district’s lean, incumbency and education predicted in 2024, and is running again; the model keeps 65% of that (−1.0 pts).
- Polls of the St. Louis congressional race ran 2.1 pts more Democratic than its fundamentals. The model reads that as a slightly better statewide mood (+0.31 pts) plus +0.19 pts for districts like this one.
- 9.9 pts more adults hold a bachelor’s degree than in the average House district. In 2022 and 2024, districts like that voted less Democratic for the legislature than their statewide-race vote: −0.4 pts.
- In 2024, Missouri House races ran below what districts with this statewide vote would be expected to give: −0.2 pts.
- Democratic turnout in the August primary ran below what this district’s lean suggests, compared with the state as a whole: −0.2 pts.
- District polls, shared part: the Senate-district polls (SD 8 and SD 30) ran more Democratic than the model expected in those seats, and the model reads part of that as a statewide and regional mood: +0.18 pts here.
Races like this are hard to call. Across 100,000 simulated elections the Democratic share falls between 44.5% and 53.7% eight times in ten. The range is wider than usual because the seat is close to even.
The Democrat finishes ahead in about 39,720 of 100,000 simulated elections.
What the model does not know. Two Senate-district polls (SD 8, SD 30) are used as noisy observations (D-25); there are no House-district polls. Candidates’ fundraising, local news and endorsements do not change legislative expected vote shares. Recorded defensive committee spending can widen uncertainty in selected seats without moving the expected share (D-27). Outside ratings are shown for comparison only (D-09); third-party candidates are ignored (D-08).
Independent forecasts
Other forecasters’ published assessments, kept separate from this site’s model. Sources cover different sets of districts.
- State Navigate, Nov 2, 2026
- Lean D, 68% D · 68% published chance of a Democratic win
- On Point Politics, Nov 1, 2026
- Toss-up, 56% R · 44% published chance of a Democratic win
Campaign finance context
Candidate account figures are dated Oct 22, 2026. Committee records have their own reporting periods and sources, shown below, and may be later. Candidate accounts and committee activity are separate; these figures do not measure votes or a candidate’s chance of winning. Missing amounts are not zero.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Wilson (R) | $24K | $11K | $28K |
| Reporting period: 2026-10-01..22. Reported source: MOScout 2026-10-27. Record collected: Nov 2, 2026. Individual filing not linked. | |||
| Jewel Kelly (D) | $19K | $24K | $8K |
| Reporting period: 2026-10-01..22. Reported source: MOScout 2026-10-27. Record collected: Nov 2, 2026. Individual filing not linked. | |||
Committee spending by reporting period
- HRCC: $125K; 2026-10-01..22 (8-day). Side recorded by source: R.
Reported source: MOScout 2026-10-27. Record collected: Nov 2, 2026. Individual filing not linked.
- Will of the People + MO Democratic State Committee: $127K; 2026-10-01..22 (8-day). Side recorded by source: D.
Reported source: MOScout 2026-10-27. Record collected: Nov 2, 2026. Individual filing not linked.
- HRCC late spend: $145K; through 2026-10-29. Side recorded by source: R.
Reported source: MOScout 2026-10-30. Record collected: Nov 2, 2026. Individual filing not linked.
File-level 8-day summary attribution: Missouri Ethics Commission 8-day reports, as transcribed by Missouri Scout, Oct 27, 2026. Other records use their own reported sources above. Collection dates do not establish independent verification. Figures cover the records provided, not necessarily every committee or filing. Download the published finance records.
Candidate experience: scores, evidence and limits
This is a recorded model-input classification, not a judgment of competence or an endorsement. Scale: 0 means no qualifying office or same-seat run recorded; 1 minor elected office or a qualifying previous run; 2 substantial local office or former state legislator; 3 sitting state legislator. A zero does not prove someone has no public-service experience. Missing scores remain unknown.
Compiled Nov 1, 2026. These are the input compiler’s records and source links; they are not a claim every linked biography was independently verified today.
- Jewel Kelly Jr. (D): 0 of 3
Recorded prior office: none.
Evidence source 1 (theballotbrief.com) · Evidence source 2 (www.dlcc.org)
- Travis Wilson (R): 3 of 3
Recorded prior office: Missouri House HD106. Recorded years: 2023-present.
Evidence source 1 (ballotpedia.org) · Evidence source 2 (criticalreport.substack.com)
Experience scoring decisions · Report a factual correction with a source
Published versions and source checks
Candidate experience coverage
The candidate-experience scoring notes report that some Ballotpedia checks relied on search snippets, not full pages.
Last archived district record: Nov 3, 5:57 pm CT. This bundle matches the current published files. No district fields changed between the two latest archived versions.
Latest archived snapshot (JSON) · Full seats (CSV) · File checksums and provenance · Previous record (Nov 3, 12:24 pm CT)
Full immutable district records begin at this baseline. Earlier headline history is not a full snapshot archive. Browse archive versions · Headline update history.
Sources7ShowHide
- Missouri Secretary of State, 2026 general election certified candidate list , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- Missouri Secretary of State, official election results (grand totals, 2016 to 2024) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- 2024 district leans: Secretary of State precinct results for president, governor and US Senate, allocated to the 2022 House and Senate district plans (Missouri Office of Administration) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- Ballotpedia, Missouri House of Representatives elections, 2026 (incumbents, open seats, district pages) , accessed Nov 1, 2026.
- State Navigate, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 2, 2026.
- On Point Politics, published forecast , forecast dated Nov 1, 2026.
- Missouri House (house.mo.gov) and Senate (senate.mo.gov) member pages: name, party, first-elected year, leadership, committees and biography, collected through the PROMO legislator roster (RavBogard/promo-legislators) , accessed Sep 7, 2026.