{
 "generated": "2026-11-03T23:57:33+00:00",
 "runs": 100000,
 "seed": 20261103,
 "electorate_shift_share": 0.033,
 "measures": [
  {
   "id": "A3",
   "title": "Amendment 3 (HCS HJR 73): repeal 2024 reproductive-rights amendment; abortion only for emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape/incest under 12 weeks; parental consent; ban gender-transition procedures for minors",
   "yes_means": "Repeals the 2024 abortion-rights amendment, allowing abortion restrictions again, and writes a ban on gender-transition care for minors into the constitution",
   "status_quo": "no",
   "referred_by": "legislature",
   "basis": "polls (3) shrunk 53% to prior",
   "poll_yes": 0.4303,
   "poll_no": 0.4325,
   "poll_und": 0.1372,
   "centre": 0.4587,
   "sd": 0.0702,
   "p_pass": 0.3039,
   "yes_mean": 0.4586,
   "yes_p10": 0.3477,
   "yes_p90": 0.5695,
   "money_yes": 8612661.51,
   "money_no": 27453529.81,
   "sources": [
    "https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026ballotmeasures",
    "https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Amendment_3,_Prohibit_Abortion_and_Gender_Transition_Procedures_for_Minors_Amendment_(2026)",
    "https://www.fultonsun.com/news/2026/oct/27/follow-the-money-whos-bankrolling-missouris-final/"
   ],
   "notes": "Prior 0.457, sd 0.06 (D-M10): the 2024 keep-rights vote reweighted to the expected 2026 electorate (51.7%) moved by the seat model's electorate shift (+3.3 share x 0.784 district slope) gives repeal 45.7%; no poll-derived issue effect (the polls enter the likelihood). Other considerations: the 2024 amendment it repeals passed 51.6%, the minors' gender-care ban adds appeal (SLU Feb: 67%/73% oppose hormones/surgery for minors) but legislative referrals were crushed in Aug 2026 (A4 19.7%, A5 16.7%), the No side outspends 3:1, and the midterm electorate is expected to lean more Democratic. Kalshi 0.42 last / Polymarket 0.38 (2026-11-01).",
   "why": {
    "poll_weight_sum": 35.76173005315885,
    "k": 0.4720289521908532,
    "prior_weight": 40.0,
    "undecided_to_yes": 0.22,
    "poll_centre": 0.46050582133128654,
    "prior_yes": 0.457,
    "prior_sd": 0.06,
    "part_polls_yes": 0.20312199968296332,
    "part_undecided": 0.01425008063783212,
    "part_start": 0.2412827688487801,
    "centre_exact": 0.45865484916957555,
    "poll_row_weights": [
     {
      "pollster": "SLU/YouGov (Sept 2026 reweight of Feb wave)",
      "end": "2026-02-22",
      "share_of_weight": 0.004526061384350357
     },
     {
      "pollster": "SLU/YouGov",
      "end": "2026-08-24",
      "share_of_weight": 0.2641504365823944
     },
     {
      "pollster": "Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout",
      "end": "2026-10-15",
      "share_of_weight": 0.7313235020332552
     }
    ],
    "sd_own": 0.07015469382824209,
    "common_error_sd": 0.02,
    "turnout_term_sd": 0.012
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "A6",
   "title": "Amendment 6 (initiative petition): initiative/referendum a fundamental right; legislature needs 80% of both chambers to refer changes to voter-approved statutes",
   "yes_means": "Makes the initiative and referendum a constitutional right; changing a law voters passed would need 80% of both chambers and then voter approval; courts could rewrite ballot summaries",
   "status_quo": "no",
   "referred_by": "initiative",
   "basis": "polls (2) shrunk 53% to prior",
   "poll_yes": 0.4653,
   "poll_no": 0.2467,
   "poll_und": 0.288,
   "centre": 0.5452,
   "sd": 0.0749,
   "p_pass": 0.7016,
   "yes_mean": 0.5452,
   "yes_p10": 0.4287,
   "yes_p90": 0.6621,
   "money_yes": 7400000,
   "money_no": 40000,
   "sources": [
    "https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026ballotmeasures",
    "https://www.fultonsun.com/news/2026/oct/27/follow-the-money-whos-bankrolling-missouris-final/"
   ],
   "notes": "Prior 0.56: voters rejected the GOP's initiative curbs 80-20 in Aug 2026 and polls show +20 to +27 with ~30% undecided and $7.4M vs $40K, but it is a complex structural amendment opposed by the governor/GOP and undecideds historically break No. SLU und reported 32 (row sums to 101); entered as 31.",
   "why": {
    "poll_weight_sum": 35.59987026772769,
    "k": 0.47089856294270227,
    "prior_weight": 40.0,
    "undecided_to_yes": 0.22,
    "poll_centre": 0.5286583481300001,
    "prior_yes": 0.56,
    "prior_sd": 0.07,
    "part_polls_yes": 0.21911241112745233,
    "part_undecided": 0.029832045294627536,
    "part_start": 0.29629680475208675,
    "centre_exact": 0.5452412611741666,
    "poll_row_weights": [
     {
      "pollster": "SLU/YouGov",
      "end": "2026-08-24",
      "share_of_weight": 0.2653514334586536
     },
     {
      "pollster": "Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout",
      "end": "2026-10-15",
      "share_of_weight": 0.7346485665413464
     }
    ],
    "sd_own": 0.0748755490424882,
    "common_error_sd": 0.02,
    "turnout_term_sd": 0.009
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "A7",
   "title": "Amendment 7 (SS SCS SJR 95): Show-Me Prosperity Fund, permanent endowment to replace state taxes",
   "yes_means": "Creates a state endowment invested by the Treasurer; once its earnings can replace state taxes, those taxes end and cannot be brought back, except in insolvency",
   "status_quo": "no",
   "referred_by": "legislature",
   "basis": "prior",
   "poll_yes": null,
   "poll_no": null,
   "poll_und": null,
   "centre": 0.42,
   "sd": 0.12,
   "p_pass": 0.2726,
   "yes_mean": 0.4207,
   "yes_p10": 0.2401,
   "yes_p90": 0.5999,
   "money_yes": 0,
   "money_no": 0,
   "sources": [
    "https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026ballotmeasures",
    "https://www.kctv5.com/2026/10/28/how-amendment-7-aims-eliminate-missouri-state-taxes-decades-later/"
   ],
   "notes": "prior_sd 0.12 (D-M6): unpolled; Missouri legislative constitutional referrals since 2014 have a yes-share sd of 16 points. Prior 0.42: no poll and no campaign either side; appealing 'instead of taxing Missouri residents' title, but voters just rejected the income-tax phase-out 83-17 (Aug 2026) and the 2022 treasurer-investment amendment (45.7%); low-information referrals in MO have split (2010-2024 legislative referrals passed 18 of 29).",
   "why": {
    "poll_weight_sum": 0.0,
    "k": 0.0,
    "prior_weight": 40.0,
    "undecided_to_yes": 0.3925,
    "poll_centre": null,
    "prior_yes": 0.42,
    "prior_sd": 0.12,
    "part_polls_yes": 0.0,
    "part_undecided": 0.0,
    "part_start": 0.42,
    "centre_exact": 0.42,
    "poll_row_weights": [],
    "sd_own": 0.12,
    "common_error_sd": 0.02,
    "turnout_term_sd": 0.0015
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "A8",
   "title": "Amendment 8 (CCS HCS SS SJR 87): constitutionally require elected county sheriffs; removal only by quo warranto from the Attorney General",
   "yes_means": "Writes the election, duties and limits on removal of county sheriffs into the constitution, with St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County exempt",
   "status_quo": "no",
   "referred_by": "legislature",
   "basis": "prior",
   "poll_yes": null,
   "poll_no": null,
   "poll_und": null,
   "centre": 0.58,
   "sd": 0.12,
   "p_pass": 0.7306,
   "yes_mean": 0.5797,
   "yes_p10": 0.4,
   "yes_p90": 0.7607,
   "money_yes": 0,
   "money_no": 0,
   "sources": [
    "https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026ballotmeasures",
    "https://www.kctv5.com/2026/09/30/missouri-ballot-measure-would-make-removing-sheriffs-far-harder/"
   ],
   "notes": "prior_sd 0.12 (D-M6): unpolled; Missouri legislative constitutional referrals since 2014 have a yes-share sd of 16 points. Prior 0.58: no poll or organized opposition; 'support law enforcement... preserving the right of citizens to elect a county sheriff' title codifies existing practice; law-enforcement referrals ranged 39-63% (2024 A6 39.4%, Aug 2024 A4 51.1%, 2022 A4 63.2%) and the Aug 2026 elected-assessor referral passed 76.9%. Manifold (play money, 3 traders) 72%.",
   "why": {
    "poll_weight_sum": 0.0,
    "k": 0.0,
    "prior_weight": 40.0,
    "undecided_to_yes": 0.3925,
    "poll_centre": null,
    "prior_yes": 0.58,
    "prior_sd": 0.12,
    "part_polls_yes": 0.0,
    "part_undecided": 0.0,
    "part_start": 0.58,
    "centre_exact": 0.58,
    "poll_row_weights": [],
    "sd_own": 0.12,
    "common_error_sd": 0.02,
    "turnout_term_sd": 0.0
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "PropA",
   "title": "Proposition A: veto referendum on HB 1 (2025 Second Extraordinary Session) congressional map",
   "yes_means": "Approves the 2025 congressional map, drawn to favour Republicans in seven of eight seats and splitting Kansas City's 5th District, from 2028; a No vote keeps the 2022 map",
   "status_quo": "no",
   "referred_by": "referendum",
   "basis": "polls (2) shrunk 57% to prior",
   "poll_yes": 0.3505,
   "poll_no": 0.321,
   "poll_und": 0.3285,
   "centre": 0.4269,
   "sd": 0.0745,
   "p_pass": 0.2021,
   "yes_mean": 0.4274,
   "yes_p10": 0.3098,
   "yes_p90": 0.5447,
   "money_yes": 2900000,
   "money_no": 11000000,
   "sources": [
    "https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026ballotmeasures",
    "https://www.newstribune.com/news/2026/oct/28/missouri-congressional-map-fight-reaches-voters/",
    "https://www.fultonsun.com/news/2026/oct/27/follow-the-money-whos-bankrolling-missouris-final/"
   ],
   "notes": "Prior 0.43: status quo is No, People Not Politicians has ~$11M and $1.4M broadcast vs no persuasion campaign for Yes (Put Missouri First's ~$2.9M went to blocking the petition), Feb SLU had the map 41-44 and the 2018 veto referendum lost 32.5%; offset by a GOP-leaning state and a favorable title ('keep more counties intact'). Polymarket Yes 0.335 mid on $95 volume.",
   "why": {
    "poll_weight_sum": 30.257016121735912,
    "k": 0.43066184406848274,
    "prior_weight": 40.0,
    "undecided_to_yes": 0.22,
    "poll_centre": 0.422773286382977,
    "prior_yes": 0.43,
    "prior_sd": 0.07,
    "part_polls_yes": 0.15095113905115964,
    "part_undecided": 0.031121184085425992,
    "part_start": 0.2448154070505524,
    "centre_exact": 0.42688773018713805,
    "poll_row_weights": [
     {
      "pollster": "SLU/YouGov (map question, not ballot text)",
      "end": "2026-02-22",
      "share_of_weight": 0.008494430538088628
     },
     {
      "pollster": "SLU/YouGov",
      "end": "2026-08-24",
      "share_of_weight": 0.9915055694619114
     }
    ],
    "sd_own": 0.07447142247938282,
    "common_error_sd": 0.02,
    "turnout_term_sd": 0.012
   }
  }
 ],
 "joint_top": [
  {
   "outcome": {
    "A3": false,
    "A6": true,
    "A7": false,
    "A8": true,
    "PropA": false
   },
   "p": 0.2037
  },
  {
   "outcome": {
    "A3": false,
    "A6": false,
    "A7": false,
    "A8": true,
    "PropA": false
   },
   "p": 0.0954
  },
  {
   "outcome": {
    "A3": true,
    "A6": true,
    "A7": false,
    "A8": true,
    "PropA": false
   },
   "p": 0.0887
  },
  {
   "outcome": {
    "A3": false,
    "A6": true,
    "A7": false,
    "A8": false,
    "PropA": false
   },
   "p": 0.08
  },
  {
   "outcome": {
    "A3": false,
    "A6": true,
    "A7": true,
    "A8": true,
    "PropA": false
   },
   "p": 0.0747
  },
  {
   "outcome": {
    "A3": false,
    "A6": true,
    "A7": false,
    "A8": true,
    "PropA": true
   },
   "p": 0.0499
  }
 ],
 "vintage": {
  "generated": "2026-11-03T23:57:33+00:00",
  "forecast_generated": "2026-11-03T23:57:33+00:00",
  "inputs_as_of": "2026-11-03"
 }
}