{ "generated": "2026-11-03T23:57:33+00:00", "runs": 100000, "seed": 20261103, "parameters": { "lean": "L_comp", "lean_weights": [ 0.25, 0.5, 0.25 ], "hetero": true, "shift_mean": 0.033, "shift_scale": 0.015, "df_state": 5, "edu_term": true, "primary_coef": 0.03, "quality_coef": 0.008, "inc_asym": 0.5, "resid_carry": 0.65, "resid_carry_same_pair": 0.75, "resid_carry_open": 0.4, "sd_region": 0.013, "sd_type": 0.013, "df_seat": 7, "mo2_feedback_weight": 1.0, "mo2_legis_elasticity": 0.58, "district_poll_weight": 1.0, "district_poll_error_sd": 0.04, "district_poll_today": null, "generic_check_error_sd": 0.03, "joint_shock": true, "open_mult": 1.25, "nohist_mult": 1.5, "defence_spend_mult": 1.25, "defence_spend_min": 20000, "runs": 100000, "seed": 20261103, "holdover_dem_senate": 7, "holdover_rep_senate": 10, "house_super": 109, "senate_super": 23 }, "fit": { "intercept_2022": -0.002622561007314524, "intercept": -0.0018115853363019907, "slope": 1.0209014074132887, "inc": 0.013276832823489087, "edu": -0.042860553690865756, "sd_seat": 0.0174 }, "chambers": { "house": { "seats_up": 163, "total": 163, "holdover_dem": 0, "dem_expected": 60.02, "dem_median": 60, "dem_p10": 54, "dem_p90": 66, "rep_expected": 102.98, "p_rep_supermajority": 0.1069, "p_rep_majority": 0.9993, "distribution": { "39": 1e-05, "40": 5e-05, "41": 0.00024, "42": 0.00022, "43": 0.00036, "44": 0.00047, "45": 0.0007, "46": 0.0009, "47": 0.00138, "48": 0.00244, "49": 0.00382, "50": 0.00628, "51": 0.01043, "52": 0.01636, "53": 0.02512, "54": 0.03808, "55": 0.05391, "56": 0.06554, "57": 0.07545, "58": 0.0832, "59": 0.08479, "60": 0.08258, "61": 0.08064, "62": 0.07653, "63": 0.06888, "64": 0.05652, "65": 0.04797, "66": 0.03698, "67": 0.02675, "68": 0.01758, "69": 0.01191, "70": 0.00836, "71": 0.00506, "72": 0.00313, "73": 0.00216, "74": 0.00133, "75": 0.00101, "76": 0.00062, "77": 0.00055, "78": 0.00028, "79": 0.00032, "80": 0.00021, "81": 0.00017, "82": 0.00013, "83": 5e-05, "84": 0.00011, "85": 0.0001, "86": 5e-05, "87": 5e-05, "88": 1e-05, "89": 1e-05, "90": 2e-05, "91": 3e-05, "93": 2e-05, "94": 2e-05, "95": 1e-05, "96": 1e-05, "98": 1e-05, "99": 1e-05, "102": 1e-05, "103": 1e-05, "105": 2e-05, "108": 1e-05, "118": 1e-05, "126": 1e-05 }, "why": { "fixed_d": 29, "fixed_r": 5, "likely_d": 21, "likely_r": 86, "in_play": 22, "rep_needed": 109, "rep_holdover": 0, "runs_kept": 10686, "runs": 100000, "state_swing_if_kept": -0.025707, "state_swing_if_broken": 0.003011 } }, "senate": { "seats_up": 17, "total": 34, "holdover_dem": 7, "dem_expected": 11.49, "dem_median": 12, "dem_p10": 10, "dem_p90": 12, "rep_expected": 22.51, "p_rep_supermajority": 0.4605, "p_rep_majority": 1.0, "distribution": { "9": 0.00218, "10": 0.13276, "11": 0.32552, "12": 0.45229, "13": 0.08573, "14": 0.00119, "15": 0.00029, "16": 1e-05, "17": 1e-05, "20": 1e-05, "21": 1e-05 }, "why": { "fixed_d": 1, "fixed_r": 0, "likely_d": 2, "likely_r": 11, "in_play": 3, "rep_needed": 23, "rep_holdover": 10, "runs_kept": 46046, "runs": 100000, "state_swing_if_kept": -0.008919, "state_swing_if_broken": 0.007505 } } }, "joint": { "both": 0.0951, "house_only": 0.0118, "senate_only": 0.3654, "neither": 0.5278, "shared_shock": true }, "mo2_feedback": { "z": 0.0209, "obs_sd": 0.0513, "poll_avg": 0.505, "fundamentals": 0.4841, "weight": 1.0, "elasticity": 0.58, "state": 0.00315, "region": { "rural_north": 5e-05, "rural_southeast": 0.00018, "stl_metro": 0.00119 }, "dtype": { "exurban": 4e-05, "rural": 0.00023, "suburban": 0.00019, "suburban_inner": 0.00075, "urban_core": 0.00021 } }, "shared_observations": { "state": 0.00443, "polls_state": 0.001284, "region": { "kc_metro": 0.000758, "rural_north": 3.6e-05, "rural_southeast": 0.000148, "springfield": 9.6e-05, "stl_metro": 0.000958 }, "dtype": { "exurban": 3e-05, "rural": 0.000185, "suburban": 0.000154, "suburban_inner": 0.00146, "urban_core": 0.000168 }, "seat": { "senate-8": 0.004616, "senate-30": 0.000616 }, "weight": 1.0, "error_sd": 0.04, "today": "2026-11-03", "polls": [ { "chamber": "senate", "district": 8, "pollster": "Remington Research Group", "end": "2026-10-01", "n": 596, "partisan": "R", "raw_dem_share": 0.516129, "adj_dem_share": 0.531129, "weight": 0.41072, "obs_sd": 0.062415, "mean_before": 0.502392, "z": 0.028737, "source_url": "https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-SD8-GEN-ELECTION-SURVEY-100226.docx", "seat_shift": 0.004616 }, { "chamber": "senate", "district": 30, "pollster": "Remington Research Group", "end": "2026-10-08", "n": 517, "partisan": "R", "raw_dem_share": 0.51087, "adj_dem_share": 0.52587, "weight": 0.481961, "obs_sd": 0.057617, "mean_before": 0.517387, "z": 0.008482, "source_url": "https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-SD30-GEN-ELECTION-SURVEY-100926.docx", "seat_shift": 0.000616 } ], "mo2": { "z": 0.0209, "obs_sd": 0.0513, "poll_avg": 0.505, "fundamentals": 0.4841, "weight": 1.0, "elasticity": 0.58, "state": 0.00315, "region": { "rural_north": 5e-05, "rural_southeast": 0.00018, "stl_metro": 0.00119 }, "dtype": { "exurban": 4e-05, "rural": 0.00023, "suburban": 0.00019, "suburban_inner": 0.00075, "urban_core": 0.00021 } } }, "checks": { "generic_house": { "item": "POLS026 Missouri House vote", "poll": "SLU/YouGov August 2026 (STLU0016)", "field_end": "2026-08-24", "n": 900, "n_eff": 720, "slu_dem": 43.549, "slu_rep": 48.462, "slu_2pv": 0.473302, "model_implied_2pv": 0.440547, "z": 0.032755, "weight": 0.128786, "obs_sd": 0.083596, "today": "2026-11-03", "applied": false, "source_url": "https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/public-data/august-2026-poll/", "note": "Published as a check, not applied to any seat mean (D-26)." } }, "scoring": "Scored after certification: Brier score and log loss over contested seats, seats called correctly, calibration by probability bin, and whether the chamber seat counts fall inside the 10th-90th percentile range. Compared against State Navigate (Nov 2), On Point Politics (Nov 1) and a lean-only baseline.", "vintage": { "generated": "2026-11-03T23:57:33+00:00", "forecast_generated": "2026-11-03T23:57:33+00:00", "inputs_as_of": "2026-11-03" } }