{
 "generated_by": "model/backtest/run.py (calibration.py)",
 "design": {
  "seats": "contested, non-special seats only (the same seats the scores use); p_dem = the probability Brier and log loss are computed from (normal share model with seat sd and rolling statewide tau for A/B/C; share draws for P_production_repro, 2024 only)",
  "bins": "10 equal-width bins on p_dem, [lo,hi) with 1.0 in the last; mean_predicted and observed_freq per bin",
  "interval": "Wilson score interval for the observed frequency, 95% (ci95) and 80% (ci80); few_seats true when n < 10, where intervals are wide and a bin should not be read alone",
  "years_note": "4 election years; seats within a year share a statewide shift, so seats are not independent and the intervals are optimistic"
 },
 "models": {
  "A_lean_inc": {
   "pooled": {
    "n_seats": 427,
    "bins": [
     {
      "lo": 0.0,
      "hi": 0.1,
      "n": 207,
      "n_dem_won": 0,
      "mean_predicted": 0.0249,
      "observed_freq": 0.0,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.0,
       0.0182
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.0,
       0.0079
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.1,
      "hi": 0.2,
      "n": 33,
      "n_dem_won": 2,
      "mean_predicted": 0.1449,
      "observed_freq": 0.0606,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.0168,
       0.1961
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.0255,
       0.1374
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.2,
      "hi": 0.3,
      "n": 25,
      "n_dem_won": 4,
      "mean_predicted": 0.2272,
      "observed_freq": 0.16,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.064,
       0.3465
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.0876,
       0.2744
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.3,
      "hi": 0.4,
      "n": 17,
      "n_dem_won": 3,
      "mean_predicted": 0.3469,
      "observed_freq": 0.1765,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.0619,
       0.4103
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.0883,
       0.3217
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.4,
      "hi": 0.5,
      "n": 48,
      "n_dem_won": 8,
      "mean_predicted": 0.4322,
      "observed_freq": 0.1667,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.087,
       0.2958
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.109,
       0.2464
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.5,
      "hi": 0.6,
      "n": 11,
      "n_dem_won": 6,
      "mean_predicted": 0.5341,
      "observed_freq": 0.5455,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.2801,
       0.7873
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.36,
       0.7191
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.6,
      "hi": 0.7,
      "n": 15,
      "n_dem_won": 13,
      "mean_predicted": 0.6448,
      "observed_freq": 0.8667,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.6212,
       0.9626
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.7177,
       0.9432
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.7,
      "hi": 0.8,
      "n": 9,
      "n_dem_won": 9,
      "mean_predicted": 0.75,
      "observed_freq": 1.0,
      "few_seats": true,
      "ci95": [
       0.7009,
       1.0
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.8457,
       1.0
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.8,
      "hi": 0.9,
      "n": 19,
      "n_dem_won": 18,
      "mean_predicted": 0.8526,
      "observed_freq": 0.9474,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.7536,
       0.9906
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.8394,
       0.9841
      ]
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.9,
      "hi": 1.0,
      "n": 43,
      "n_dem_won": 43,
      "mean_predicted": 0.9873,
      "observed_freq": 1.0,
      "few_seats": false,
      "ci95": [
       0.918,
       1.0
      ],
      "ci80": [
       0.9632,
       1.0
      ]
     }
    ]
   },
   "pooled_by_chamber": {
    "house": {
     "n_seats": 376,
     "bins": [
      {
       "lo": 0.0,
       "hi": 0.1,
       "n": 185,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.0234,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
        0.0203
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0,
        0.0088
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.1,
       "hi": 0.2,
       "n": 31,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.1458,
       "observed_freq": 0.0323,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0057,
        0.1619
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0097,
        0.1019
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.2,
       "hi": 0.3,
       "n": 19,
       "n_dem_won": 2,
       "mean_predicted": 0.227,
       "observed_freq": 0.1053,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0294,
        0.3139
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0446,
        0.2288
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.3,
       "hi": 0.4,
       "n": 16,
       "n_dem_won": 3,
       "mean_predicted": 0.3492,
       "observed_freq": 0.1875,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0659,
        0.4301
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.094,
        0.3392
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.4,
       "hi": 0.5,
       "n": 38,
       "n_dem_won": 7,
       "mean_predicted": 0.4338,
       "observed_freq": 0.1842,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0922,
        0.3342
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.1173,
        0.2773
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.5,
       "hi": 0.6,
       "n": 11,
       "n_dem_won": 6,
       "mean_predicted": 0.5341,
       "observed_freq": 0.5455,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.2801,
        0.7873
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.36,
        0.7191
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.6,
       "hi": 0.7,
       "n": 14,
       "n_dem_won": 12,
       "mean_predicted": 0.6421,
       "observed_freq": 0.8571,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.6006,
        0.9599
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.7002,
        0.9391
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.7,
       "hi": 0.8,
       "n": 7,
       "n_dem_won": 7,
       "mean_predicted": 0.7435,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.6457,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.81,
        1.0
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.8,
       "hi": 0.9,
       "n": 16,
       "n_dem_won": 15,
       "mean_predicted": 0.8546,
       "observed_freq": 0.9375,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.7167,
        0.9889
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.8124,
        0.9811
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.9,
       "hi": 1.0,
       "n": 39,
       "n_dem_won": 39,
       "mean_predicted": 0.9861,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.9103,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.9596,
        1.0
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    "senate": {
     "n_seats": 51,
     "bins": [
      {
       "lo": 0.0,
       "hi": 0.1,
       "n": 22,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.0369,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
        0.1487
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0,
        0.0695
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.1,
       "hi": 0.2,
       "n": 2,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.1307,
       "observed_freq": 0.5,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.0945,
        0.9055
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.1643,
        0.8357
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.2,
       "hi": 0.3,
       "n": 6,
       "n_dem_won": 2,
       "mean_predicted": 0.2278,
       "observed_freq": 0.3333,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.0968,
        0.7
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.1477,
        0.5906
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.3,
       "hi": 0.4,
       "n": 1,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.3108,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
        0.7935
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0,
        0.6216
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.4,
       "hi": 0.5,
       "n": 10,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.426,
       "observed_freq": 0.1,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0179,
        0.4042
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0304,
        0.2824
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.5,
       "hi": 0.6,
       "n": 0,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": null,
       "observed_freq": null,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        null,
        null
       ],
       "ci80": [
        null,
        null
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.6,
       "hi": 0.7,
       "n": 1,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.683,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.2065,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.3784,
        1.0
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.7,
       "hi": 0.8,
       "n": 2,
       "n_dem_won": 2,
       "mean_predicted": 0.7727,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.3424,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.5491,
        1.0
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.8,
       "hi": 0.9,
       "n": 3,
       "n_dem_won": 3,
       "mean_predicted": 0.8414,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.4385,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.6462,
        1.0
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.9,
       "hi": 1.0,
       "n": 4,
       "n_dem_won": 4,
       "mean_predicted": 0.9996,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.5101,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.7089,
        1.0
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   },
   "by_year": {
    "2018": {
     "n_seats": 133,
     "bins": [
      {
       "lo": 0.0,
       "hi": 0.1,
       "n": 68,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.0492,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
        0.0535
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0,
        0.0236
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.1,
       "hi": 0.2,
       "n": 7,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.1436,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
        0.3543
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0,
        0.19
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.2,
       "hi": 0.3,
       "n": 3,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.2203,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
        0.5615
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0,
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       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.3,
       "hi": 0.4,
       "n": 3,
       "n_dem_won": 2,
       "mean_predicted": 0.3519,
       "observed_freq": 0.6667,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.2077,
        0.9385
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.3212,
        0.8942
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.4,
       "hi": 0.5,
       "n": 36,
       "n_dem_won": 4,
       "mean_predicted": 0.421,
       "observed_freq": 0.1111,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0441,
        0.2531
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       "ci80": [
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.5,
       "hi": 0.6,
       "n": 0,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": null,
       "observed_freq": null,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        null,
        null
       ],
       "ci80": [
        null,
        null
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.6,
       "hi": 0.7,
       "n": 2,
       "n_dem_won": 2,
       "mean_predicted": 0.623,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.3424,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.5491,
        1.0
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.7,
       "hi": 0.8,
       "n": 1,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.7501,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.2065,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.3784,
        1.0
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.8,
       "hi": 0.9,
       "n": 9,
       "n_dem_won": 8,
       "mean_predicted": 0.854,
       "observed_freq": 0.8889,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.565,
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       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.6916,
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.9,
       "hi": 1.0,
       "n": 4,
       "n_dem_won": 4,
       "mean_predicted": 0.9819,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.5101,
        1.0
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.7089,
        1.0
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    "2020": {
     "n_seats": 90,
     "bins": [
      {
       "lo": 0.0,
       "hi": 0.1,
       "n": 38,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.0267,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
        0.0918
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0,
        0.0414
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.1,
       "hi": 0.2,
       "n": 12,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.1499,
       "observed_freq": 0.0833,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.0149,
        0.3539
       ],
       "ci80": [
        0.0253,
        0.2417
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.2,
       "hi": 0.3,
       "n": 15,
       "n_dem_won": 4,
       "mean_predicted": 0.223,
       "observed_freq": 0.2667,
       "few_seats": false,
       "ci95": [
        0.109,
        0.5195
       ],
       "ci80": [
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.3,
       "hi": 0.4,
       "n": 4,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.3561,
       "observed_freq": 0.25,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.0456,
        0.6994
       ],
       "ci80": [
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        0.5675
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.4,
       "hi": 0.5,
       "n": 4,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
       "mean_predicted": 0.4697,
       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
        0.0,
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       ],
       "ci80": [
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        0.2911
       ]
      },
      {
       "lo": 0.5,
       "hi": 0.6,
       "n": 1,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.5568,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
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       ],
       "ci80": [
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.6,
       "hi": 0.7,
       "n": 1,
       "n_dem_won": 1,
       "mean_predicted": 0.6568,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
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       "ci80": [
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      },
      {
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       "n_dem_won": 2,
       "mean_predicted": 0.7738,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.8,
       "hi": 0.9,
       "n": 4,
       "n_dem_won": 4,
       "mean_predicted": 0.8873,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
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       "ci95": [
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.9,
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       "n": 9,
       "n_dem_won": 9,
       "mean_predicted": 0.9855,
       "observed_freq": 1.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
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       "ci80": [
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      }
     ]
    },
    "2022": {
     "n_seats": 80,
     "bins": [
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       "n": 29,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.1,
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       "n": 8,
       "n_dem_won": 0,
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       "observed_freq": 0.0,
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       "ci95": [
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       "ci80": [
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      },
      {
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       "n_dem_won": 0,
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       "observed_freq": 0.0,
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       "ci95": [
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       "ci80": [
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.3,
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       "n_dem_won": 0,
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       "observed_freq": 0.0,
       "few_seats": true,
       "ci95": [
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       "ci80": [
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      },
      {
       "lo": 0.4,
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       "n_dem_won": 4,
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       "ci95": [
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      },
      {
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}