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   "L_comp": 0.2477,
   "L_comp_exact": 0.247661,
   "L_gov": 0.2276,
   "L_pres": 0.2526,
   "L_sen": 0.2829,
   "carry": 0.4,
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   "carry_reason": "open",
   "chamber": "senate",
   "contested": true,
   "contrib_baseline": -0.007086,
   "contrib_education": 0.001855,
   "contrib_incumbency": 0.0,
   "contrib_mo2_local": 8.3e-05,
   "contrib_mo2_state": 0.003434,
   "contrib_national": 0.033,
   "contrib_poll_seat": 0.0,
   "contrib_poll_shared": 0.001387,
   "contrib_primary": -0.002169,
   "contrib_prior_result": 0.0,
   "contrib_quality": 0.0,
   "defence_widened": false,
   "dem_cand": "J. Don Salcedo",
   "dem_ratio": 0.1638,
   "district": 6,
   "dtype": "rural",
   "edu": -0.0433,
   "fixed_winner": null,
   "inc_effect": 0.0,
   "inc_name": null,
   "inc_party": "none",
   "inc_returning": false,
   "last_party": "R",
   "mean": 0.2782,
   "mean_exact": 0.278164,
   "mo2_shift": 0.0035,
   "no_history": true,
   "open_reason": "term-limited",
   "other": null,
   "p10": 0.2335,
   "p50": 0.2779,
   "p90": 0.3226,
   "p_dem": 0.0001,
   "poll_shift": 0.0014,
   "primary_signal": -0.0022,
   "quality_diff": null,
   "quality_signal": 0.0,
   "region": "rural_south",
   "rep_cand": "Jake Vogel",
   "resid_2022": null,
   "resid_2024": null,
   "resid_prev": null,
   "resid_year": "none",
   "sd_nohist_mult": 1.5,
   "sd_open_mult": 1.25,
   "sd_rel": 0.75,
   "sd_seat": 0.0245
  },
  "senate-8": {
   "L_comp": 0.4733,
   "L_comp_exact": 0.473271,
   "L_gov": 0.463,
   "L_pres": 0.4732,
   "L_sen": 0.4939,
   "carry": 0.4,
   "carry_effective": 0.26,
   "carry_reason": "open",
   "chamber": "senate",
   "contested": true,
   "contrib_baseline": -0.00237,
   "contrib_education": -0.0046,
   "contrib_incumbency": 0.0,
   "contrib_mo2_local": 0.000273,
   "contrib_mo2_state": 0.003434,
   "contrib_national": 0.033,
   "contrib_poll_seat": 0.004829,
   "contrib_poll_shared": 0.00192,
   "contrib_primary": 0.002842,
   "contrib_prior_result": 0.00025,
   "contrib_quality": 0.0,
   "defence_widened": false,
   "dem_cand": "Keri Ingle",
   "dem_ratio": 0.5565,
   "district": 8,
   "dtype": "suburban_inner",
   "edu": 0.1073,
   "fixed_winner": null,
   "inc_effect": 0.0,
   "inc_name": null,
   "inc_party": "none",
   "inc_returning": false,
   "last_party": "R",
   "mean": 0.5128,
   "mean_exact": 0.512848,
   "mo2_shift": 0.0037,
   "no_history": false,
   "open_reason": "term-limited",
   "other": null,
   "p10": 0.4653,
   "p50": 0.5128,
   "p90": 0.5607,
   "p_dem": 0.6408,
   "poll_shift": 0.0067,
   "primary_signal": 0.0028,
   "quality_diff": 0.0,
   "quality_signal": 0.0,
   "region": "kc_metro",
   "rep_cand": "Jon Patterson",
   "resid_2022": 0.001,
   "resid_2024": null,
   "resid_prev": 0.0006,
   "resid_year": 2022.0,
   "sd_nohist_mult": 1.0,
   "sd_open_mult": 1.25,
   "sd_rel": 1.246542,
   "sd_seat": 0.0271
  }
 },
 "generated": "2026-11-03T02:53:04+00:00",
 "id": "20261103T025304Z-b16d47f27e4e",
 "previous_id": "20261102T201853Z-be38850e6e45",
 "reason": null,
 "schema_version": 1,
 "source_quality": [
  {
   "note": "Candidate notes flag an unresolved conflict: the SOS certified list shows no Republican for HD-90, while secondary sources list Ryan Sheridan. The forecast follows the SOS list; this is not an independently verified withdrawal.",
   "scope": "house-90",
   "sources": [
    "https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionCandidates/2026GeneralElectionCertifiedCandidates.pdf",
    "https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_House_of_Representatives_District_90"
   ],
   "status": "source_conflict"
  },
  {
   "note": "The candidate-experience scoring notes report that some Ballotpedia checks relied on search snippets, not full pages.",
   "scope": "candidate_experience",
   "status": "source_limit"
  },
  {
   "note": "Scoring notes could not confirm Niles Stephens’s council service or years.",
   "scope": "house-110",
   "status": "verification_limit"
  },
  {
   "note": "Scoring notes do not establish LaTonya Williams’s first school-board election date.",
   "scope": "house-10",
   "status": "verification_limit"
  },
  {
   "note": "Scoring notes do not establish whether Staci Czar’s park-board role was elected or appointed.",
   "scope": "house-56",
   "status": "verification_limit"
  },
  {
   "note": "Scoring notes report limited biographical evidence for LaVanna Wrobley.",
   "scope": "senate-24",
   "status": "verification_limit"
  },
  {
   "note": "Scoring notes do not confirm Shereka Barnes’s vice-president title; board membership is confirmed.",
   "scope": "senate-34",
   "status": "verification_limit"
  }
 ]
}